XRP Fractal Warns of 45% Plunge—Is the Post-SEC Victory Rally Running on Fumes?

XRP's chart flashes a chilling pattern—one that previously preceded a 45% nosedive. Is history about to repeat itself?

The SEC lawsuit relief rally might be hitting a wall. Traders are eyeing key support levels as the fractal's ominous shadow looms.

Technical indicators scream caution. Ripple's legal win injected life into the token, but markets have short memories—and even shorter patience for unsustainable pumps.

Here's the kicker: The same whales who cheered the regulatory win are now quietly rotating into BTC ETFs. Because nothing says 'conviction' like chasing the next shiny thing Wall Street approves.

Bearish Fractal Signals Potential 45% Drop

Technical analysts are eyeing a concerning development on XRP’s two-week chart: a bearish divergence where price makes higher highs but the relative strength index (RSI) prints lower highs. This setup mirrors conditions from the 2017–2018 market peak, which preceded a brutal multi-month selloff.

If the pattern repeats, XRP could slide toward its 50-period exponential moving average NEAR $1.64, roughly 45% below current prices, before finding meaningful support. Interim demand may emerge around $1.90–$2.00, but the bearish fractal suggests momentum is fading.

Such a correction wouldn’t necessarily end the broader bull market but could shake out overleveraged traders, reset sentiment, and set the stage for a more sustainable uptrend later.

Bulls see a different path. XRP is testing the $3.55 resistance level, which capped the 2018 rally, and has broken out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle.

Clearing $3.55 with strong volume could open the door to $4.41 and potentially $5.68, especially if U.S. regulators approve an XRP ETF and whales shift from distribution to accumulation.

Ripple’s focus on long-term infrastructure, CBDC partnerships, and real-world asset tokenization could underpin fundamental demand even if short-term price action turns choppy.

Still, macroeconomic uncertainty, whale selling patterns, and technical resistance remain hurdles that traders must watch closely. For now, XRP sits at a crossroads, either confirming the ominous fractal for a steep drop or breaking through resistance to extend the post-SEC rally.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview