Wall Street Doubles Down: Banking Giant Predicts Bitcoin at $200K Before Year-End

Bitcoin's bull run isn't just alive—it's got Wall Street's stamp of approval. A major banking player just slapped a $200K price target on the crypto king, and the clock's ticking to December.

Here's why the smart money's betting big.

Institutional FOMO meets halving math

The same suits who once dismissed crypto now see a perfect storm: ETF inflows, shrinking supply, and—let's be honest—a desperation to not miss the next gold rush. One analyst's "conservative model" apparently spits out six-figure BTC like it's nothing.

200K or bust?

This isn't some crypto bro pipe dream—it's a top-tier bank's trading desk talking. Though we'd remind them their last 'sure thing' was that 'diversified' portfolio full of commercial mortgage-backed securities in 2023.

Either way, the market's voting with its wallet. Bitcoin's up 150% since January, and the only thing louder than the hype is the sound of shorts getting liquidated.

ETF Flows Take Center Stage In Bitcoin Uptrend

According to Citi analysts, spot Bitcoin ETFs now explain over 40% of the recent price swings. Since their debut, US ETFs have snapped up about $54.66 billion worth of Bitcoin.

That buying power helped drive BTC from roughly $45,000 to $123,000 in just a few months. The bank’s base case assumes another $15 billion in ETF inflows this year. At the ratio they’ve modeled—about $4 of price per $1 of flow—that WOULD add around $63,000 to Bitcoin’s value.

Bitcoin Could Surge to $199K by Year-End, Says Citi

Citigroup has released a new forecast projecting bitcoin to reach $135,000 by the end of 2025 in its base-case scenario. The bullish case estimates a potential rise to $199,000, while the bearish outlook places the… pic.twitter.com/3Kp1o8OGsn

— The Tradesman (@The_Tradesman1) July 26, 2025

User Growth Fuels Network Effects

Based on figures from trading desks and on‑chain metrics, Citi expects a 20% rise in active Bitcoin users over the next year. That jump in adoption would support roughly $75,000 of price strength on its own.

The idea is simple. More users mean more hands holding and trading Bitcoin. That activity tends to make prices less prone to sudden drops. Still, forecasts like this rest on the assumption that new users stick around rather than flipping coins for quick gains.

Citi’s model also factors in weaker performance in equities and gold, trimming the price by about $3,200. That adjustment reflects a view that if stock and metal markets struggle, Bitcoin won’t fully decouple from broader risk assets.

At the same time, growing regulatory approval and deeper links between crypto and traditional finance should offer some support.

In the base‑case scenario, Citi adds the $63,000 from ETF flows to the $75,000 from user growth, then subtracts $3,200 for macro headwinds.

That math lands the price at about $135,000 in 2025. That figure is only $12,000 above the recent peak of $123,000. It suggests Citi sees more upside but not a runaway rally—at least not in the base case.

If ETFs keep pouring in far more than $15 billion and user growth exceeds 20%, Bitcoin could climb to $199,000 under Citi’s bull case.

Conversely, a drop to $64,000 is possible if macro conditions sour sharply. Globally, ETFs now hold around 1.48 million BTC, worth over $170 billion—about 7% of the total supply.

That level of institutional backing is unprecedented. It shifts Bitcoin’s fate more toward big‑money flows than pure retail hype.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView