🚨 Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Cash Out: CDD Ratio Shatters All-Time Records

Bitcoin's diamond hands are finally loosening their grip—and the market's feeling the tremors.

The great HODL unwind begins

Long-term holders just triggered their biggest distribution event since the last bull cycle. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) ratio—a key metric tracking dormant coins suddenly moving—has spiked to levels that historically precede major volatility.

Smart money or scared money?

While some see this as savvy profit-taking, others spot panic selling masquerading as 'strategic rebalancing' (Wall Street's favorite euphemism for capitulation). Either way, the OGs are voting with their wallets.

Pro traders are watching the CDD surge like hawks—when LTHs move, markets tend to follow. This could be the canary in the crypto coal mine... or just another Tuesday for Bitcoin's merciless volatility machine.

Funny how 'long-term conviction' lasts exactly until the first 10% pullback.

Long-Term Holders Begin Distributing, But Rally Still Intact

Top analyst Axel Adler has shared insights highlighting a key shift in Bitcoin market behavior: the sharp rise in the Monthly CDD to Yearly CDD ratio indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) are beginning to actively move dormant coins back into circulation. Historically, such elevated CDD levels have marked periods of heightened activity from experienced investors, often signaling a distribution phase where profits are realized after prolonged holding.

These spikes are significant because they suggest that coins held for years are now re-entering the market. According to Adler, this kind of activity isn’t random—it typically comes from holders with DEEP market knowledge who recognize potential turning points. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean the rally is over. While it may cap short-term upside and introduce volatility, current macro and institutional trends provide a solid counterbalance.

Treasury demand remains strong, and bitcoin ETF inflows are still flowing steadily, acting as a buffer against excessive downward pressure. This structural support is crucial in maintaining overall bullish momentum, even as some distribution unfolds.

Sideways Movement Persists Below $120K Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate in a tight range, as shown in the 12-hour chart. Price action remains compressed between the $115,724 key support and the $122,077 resistance level. After a strong impulse earlier this month, momentum has clearly cooled, with BTC now oscillating within this horizontal channel for over 10 days.

Notably, the price is currently hovering NEAR $118,500—right around the 50-period moving average (blue), which has acted as dynamic support since early July. The 100-period (green) and 200-period (red) moving averages remain well below the current price, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish despite the pause in upward movement.

However, volume has steadily declined during this consolidation phase, signaling indecision and a potential lack of conviction among buyers at current levels. A breakout above $122,000 could renew bullish momentum, opening the door for a run toward new highs, while a breakdown below $115,700 WOULD expose BTC to deeper retracement levels, likely targeting the 100 MA near $109,800.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView