Bitcoin Whales Send Contradictory Signals: Monthly Inflows Surge While Daily Outflows Ease
Big money moves in mysterious ways—especially when it comes to Bitcoin. Whale activity just flipped the script with a head-scratching combo: monthly inflows are climbing while daily outflows taper off. Are the crypto elite accumulating or just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic?
The whale watch is on
Tracking these deep-pocketed players feels like decoding financial hieroglyphics. One month they’re gobbling up BTC like it’s going out of style—next thing you know, they’re easing off the sell button. Pro tip: When whales can’t decide whether to HODL or fold, retail traders get whiplash.
What’s really in the wallet?
Forget fundamentals—when whales twitch, markets follow. This mixed-bag metrics drop smells like high-stakes poker. Maybe they know something we don’t (or maybe they’re just as clueless as hedge fund managers during a Fed meeting). Either way, grab your popcorn—this liquidity drama’s just getting started.
Whale Inflows Surge, But Daily Trend Suggests Potential Easing
Top analyst Darkfost has drawn attention to a critical development in Bitcoin’s market structure. According to his analysis, during the last two major market tops, exchange inflows from large holders surpassed $75 billion—an event that marked the beginning of a sharp correction or an extended consolidation phase. These inflows are a key signal, often indicating that whales are beginning to distribute their holdings after a strong rally.
Currently, the data suggests a similar pattern could be unfolding. Between July 14 and July 18, the Whale to Exchange Flow monthly average surged from $28 billion to $45 billion, marking a $17 billion increase in just four days. While the recent 80,000 BTC transfer—linked to the Satoshi-era whale—likely played a role in this jump, it also reflects a broader trend: whales may be capitalizing on the recent all-time high to lock in profits.
However, there’s an important nuance. Darkfost notes that while the monthly average has spiked, daily inflow data shows a noticeable decline. This suggests that the selling pressure from whales may be subsiding—at least temporarily. If the trend continues, it could provide the market with room to stabilize and potentially prepare for another leg up.
Bitcoin Consolidates Below Resistance Amid Bullish Structure
Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow consolidation range between $115,724 and $122,077, as shown on the 4-hour chart. Despite recent pauses in upward momentum, the broader structure remains bullish. The alignment of the 50, 100, and 200 simple moving averages (SMAs) confirms a healthy uptrend, with all three moving averages sloping upward and supporting the price action from below.
The $122K level has proven to be a formidable resistance, rejecting multiple attempts to break higher. Meanwhile, the $115,724 support has remained intact, forming a clear short-term range. Volume has decreased over the last few sessions, which suggests indecision or a lack of conviction from bulls and bears alike. This kind of consolidation often precedes a breakout, especially when aligned with strong trend structure.
A decisive move above $122,077 with strong volume WOULD likely confirm the next bullish leg, possibly targeting the $130K zone. Conversely, if bears gain ground and break below the $115,724 support, BTC could test the 100 SMA near $114,800 or even revisit deeper support zones. Until then, traders should closely monitor the volume profile and structure around these levels to anticipate the next breakout or breakdown.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
