Bitcoin on the Brink: Key On-Chain Signal Hints at Imminent Breakout – Here’s the Level to Watch
Bitcoin’s coiled spring looks ready to snap. On-chain metrics are flashing a critical signal that could send BTC soaring—or stumbling—depending on one make-or-break price level.
The make-or-break zone
Whalesale investors are quietly accumulating at a key support level, while exchange reserves hit multi-year lows. Translation? The market’s tightening like a drum before a storm.
Liquidity crunch incoming?
With leveraged longs getting liquidated faster than a meme stock portfolio, the stage is set for a volatility spike. The only question: which way?
The cynical take
Of course, this could all be another ‘wolf cry’ from crypto analysts who get paid to predict breakouts. But even broken clocks are right twice a day—and Bitcoin’s technicals haven’t looked this primed since the last halving.
Derivatives Deleveraging and Liquidation Clusters Shape Price Structure
According to Amr Taha, a contributor on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, BTC has been hovering above the $104,000 support zone, where strong demand appears to be absorbing sell pressure.
However, Taha pointed out that open interest on Binance has declined, forming lower lows, a sign that the derivatives market is undergoing progressive deleveraging.
Taha’s analysis emphasized a technical divergence: while price has remained relatively stable around the $104,000 level, open interest has been falling. This divergence suggests that traders are reducing Leveraged positions, possibly due to market uncertainty or as a response to the Fed’s cautious stance.
Notably, the $104K region has emerged as a critical liquidity pocket, with data showing long positions being liquidated massively in this area. The dominance of long-side liquidations, with few short liquidations, reflects a flush-out of recent entrants attempting to ride the previous rally.
The analyst argued that this deleveraging phase could pave the way for a price rebound if macro conditions remain favorable. Historically, Bitcoin has responded positively to rate pauses, often resuming upward movement when signs of seller exhaustion appear.
The stabilization of open interest, combined with reduced liquidations, might act as a foundation for a new upward push in the NEAR term.
Bitcoin Whale Activity on Binance and Shifts in Market Behavior
In a separate analysis, another CryptoQuant analyst, Oinonen, highlighted growing whale activity on Binance. Since 2023, the whale ratio metric on the exchange has surged dramatically, climbing from 0.08 in mid-2023 to as high as 0.77 in 2025.
This shift marks a 400% increase and indicates significant accumulation behavior among large holders. Whale inflows and retention on Binance have generally coincided with longer-term confidence during periods of market volatility.
Moreover, the data shows that during recent episodes of elevated volatility, Binance users have leaned toward holding rather than exiting positions. Inflows to the platform have remained low, particularly from both whales and retail participants, suggesting that market participants are refraining from panic selling and instead are anticipating future price appreciation.
Featured image created with DALLE, Chart from TradingView
