Stellar (XLM) Shatters Resistance—30% Surge Incoming? Déjà Vu for Crypto Traders

XLM bulls are back in the driver’s seat as the token breaks key technical levels—echoes of its 2021 rally have traders dusting off old playbooks. Can history repeat, or is this just another fakeout for bagholders?

Price action mirrors last cycle’s setup: A clean breakout above the $0.15 resistance zone now targets $0.20, a 30% climb from current levels. Volume confirms the move—unlike those ’institutional adoption’ press releases that mysteriously vanish after the pump.

Watch the RSI: Overbought signals flashing, but Stellar’s network upgrades (hello, Soroban smart contracts) might justify the hype. Or not. This is crypto, after all—where ’fundamentals’ often mean ’which exchange CEO tweeted a moon emoji.’

Stellar Breakout Targets $0.39

Amid the market pump, stellar has broken out of a key demand zone and retested the $0.30 mark for the first time since March. The cryptocurrency has been in a downtrend since its November 2024 breakout, when it reached a three-year high of $0.63.

During this year’s retraces, XLM dropped 68% from the highs to a five-month low of $0.20. However, the late-April market recovery saw the cryptocurrency surge above the downtrend and attempt to confirm the breakout after recording a weekly close above the $0.28 mark.

On Friday, Stellar has reclaimed the $0.29 resistance and retested the $0.30 mark for the first time in nearly two months. Following today’s performance, Ali Martinez pointed out that Stellar is breaking out of a two-month inverse head and Shoulder pattern.

This pattern is a bullish reversal setup that suggests a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Earlier this week, the analyst pointed out that the pattern’s right shoulder was forming and the neckline sat around the $0.29 mark.

According to his post, a breakout from this formation potentially eyed a 30% rally toward the $0.39 resistance, lost during the February retraces.

XLM To Repeat Historical Tendencies?

Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that the cryptocurrency confirmed the end of its multi-month downtrend and a breakout from its Downtrending Channel.

Per the post, if XLM weekly closes above its key area, between $0.27-$0.29, any dips into this zone WOULD figure as a successful reclaim of the area as support to support a move to higher regions.

The analyst explained that reclaiming the $0.27-$0.29 area is crucial because it is a “historical demand region on the monthly timeframe.” In the past, turning this zone into support during bull markets has enabled Stellar to rally toward the $0.37-$0.40 mark.

In 2021, the cryptocurrency rallied toward its cycle high of $0.80 after retesting the key demand zone and breaking out of the $0.37 barrier. Similarly, it hit its all-time high (ATH) of $0.87 after a breakout from this area.

If XLM repeats history and rallies to the next resistance, it must reclaim and confirm that level to continue with its historical tendencies. “As such, a reclaim could see XLM challenge the $0.52 blue highs over time,” Rekt Capital concluded.

Meanwhile, analyst CW has noted that after breaking the upper line of the downtrend channel, Stellar would encounter resistance in two selling walls, one between the $0.34-$0.38 levels, and a big one around the $0.47-$0.70 zone.

As of this writing, Stellar trades at $0.296, a 2% increase in the daily timeframe.