Bitcoin MVRV Nears Breakout – Is the Next Bull Run Loading?
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is flirting with a critical threshold—one that historically signals explosive price action. Traders are watching like hawks.
When MVRV breaks this level, it usually means one thing: investors are sitting on unrealized profits, and FOMO is about to kick in. The last time this happened? A 300% rally followed.
But here’s the twist: Wall Street’s ’risk managers’ will probably call it a bubble right until they quietly pile in. Classic.
Bitcoin MVRV Faces Resistance At 365 SMA
In an X post on Saturday, Kesmeci reports that the Bitcoin MVRV is now facing an important resistance at its 365-day simple moving average (365SMA). The analyst explains that potential developments from this situation are influential to Bitcoin’s mid-term future.
The Bitcoin MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) is an important on-chain metric that measures whether Bitcoin trading price is relatively overvalued or undervalued compared to its realized price. Technically, the MVRV is used to indicate profitability, but this metric can also signal market stages, such as a price top/bottom, or identify the current price trend.
Meanwhile, the MVRV 365SMA, which produces an average of all MVRV ratios over the past 365 days, represents a critical threshold for medium-term reversal. Typically, when the MVRV remains below the 365SMA, it signals a bearish market, while a crossover above the 365SMA is interpreted as a bullish confirmation.
Following recent market developments, Bitcoin’s MVRV currently stands at 2.13, just slightly below its 365SMA at 2.14. To confirm a long-term bullish market despite recent gains, an upward crossover between the MVRV and its 365SMA must occur, signaling a potential medium-term trend reversal following the prolonged correction phase in early 2025.
Bitcoin Network Fees Climb By 42%
In other developments, on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock reports that Bitcoin network fees surged by 42% in the past week. During this time, traders spent $4.03 million on transaction fees, suggesting a high level of network engagement.
Meanwhile, crypto exchanges also recorded net withdrawals valued at $356 million. While this figure falls far lower from the $1.3 billion reported in the previous week, it indicates that many investors are still opting to keep their assets. Both the increase in network activity and sustained exchange outflows point to strong underlying demand and positive sentiment in the Bitcoin market.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $94,233 after a 0.78% decline in the past day. On larger timeframes, the premier cryptocurrency remains in profit with gains of 11.27% and 8.59% in the last seven and 30 days, respectively.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
