Why Jay Goldberg’s Lone Nvidia Sell Rating Defies Wall Street’s AI Frenzy in 2025

• Who Is Jay Goldberg, the Lone Nvidia Skeptic?
• Is Nvidia’s AI Boom Echoing the Dot-Com Crash?
• Why Are Bulls Ignoring These Red Flags?
• FAQ: Unpacking the Nvidia Debate

In a market where Nvidia’s stock has skyrocketed over 3,000% since 2020, analyst Jay Goldberg stands as the sole voice with a sell rating. While 73 out of 80 analysts rate Nvidia a buy, Goldberg warns of unsustainable hype, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble. This article dives into his contrarian stance, the risks of AI mania, and why even bullish investors are growing cautious.

Who Is Jay Goldberg, the Lone Nvidia Skeptic?

Jay Goldberg isn’t your typical Wall Street analyst. Working from a cluttered home office in San Francisco’s Haight-Ashbury district, he covers 12 tech companies—yet Nvidia is the only one he rates a sell. "There’s a lot more that can go wrong than right," he says, pointing to blind confidence in AI-driven valuations. His $100 price target, the lowest on Wall Street, contrasts sharply with the consensus $220 average. Goldberg’s track record includes buy ratings on Apple and Broadcom, but his Nvidia call reflects deep skepticism about the AI spending spree led by Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

Is Nvidia’s AI Boom Echoing the Dot-Com Crash?

Goldberg compares today’s AI infrastructure rush to Cisco’s rise and fall during the dot-com era. "We’re building all this AI capacity for psychological reasons," he argues. "When spending stops, the whole thing tumbles." Data supports his concern: The "Big Six" AI spenders (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, and OpenAI) are projected to pour $400 billion into capex this year—a 67% jump from 2024. Yet Goldberg questions whether returns will materialize, noting OpenAI’s $1 trillion spending plan lacks clear monetization. "Cisco never reclaimed its 2000 peak," he reminds investors.

Why Are Bulls Ignoring These Red Flags?

Since Goldberg initiated his sell rating on April 30, 2025, Nvidia shares have surged 70%, defying his warnings. Bulls like HSBC’s Frank Lee see room for growth, raising targets to $320 on expectations of broader AI adoption. But Goldberg counters: "Where’s the upside if Nvidia’s already sold out?" He highlights overlooked risks—from electricity shortages for data centers to supply chain fragility. "One obscure supplier’s failure could cascade," he says. Even Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon now voices caution, comparing AI enthusiasm to the dot-com bubble.

FAQ: Unpacking the Nvidia Debate

What makes Jay Goldberg’s Nvidia rating unique?

Goldberg is the only analyst among 80 covering Nvidia to issue a sell rating, with a $100 target—54% below the current price.

How does Goldberg justify his bearish stance?

He cites unsustainable AI spending, parallels to past tech bubbles, and operational risks like energy constraints.

What do Nvidia bulls argue?

Bulls believe AI adoption is still early-stage, with demand for GPUs far from peaking.