Ferrari Shares Plummet to "Worst Day in History" as 2030 Guidance Disappoints Investors (2025 Update)
- Why Did Ferrari Stock Crash Today?
- Breaking Down Ferrari's New Financial Targets
- The Electrification Factor
- Analysts Divided on Ferrari's Future
- Historical Context: Ferrari's Rollercoaster
- What This Means for Investors
- Ferrari Stock Crash: Your Questions Answered
Ferrari's stock nosedived on October 9, 2025, marking its worst single-day performance in history after the luxury automaker's updated financial projections through 2030 failed to meet market expectations. While the company raised its 2025 revenue forecast slightly, its long-term growth targets—including a modest 6% annual EBIT increase—fell short of Wall Street's hopes. The selloff erased billions in market value as analysts questioned Ferrari's cautious approach amid its electrification push.
Why Did Ferrari Stock Crash Today?
Ferrari's shares tanked 14.6% on the NYSE and 15.4% in Milan after CEO Benedetto Vigna presented surprisingly conservative financial targets during the Capital Markets Day event. The luxury carmaker now expects just 6% annual EBIT growth through 2030—a far cry from the 10% rate promised in 2022. Citi analysts noted this represents "below even the most modest growth scenario" from previous guidance, sparking concerns about Ferrari's ability to maintain its premium valuation.
Breaking Down Ferrari's New Financial Targets
The revised projections show:
- Revenue: €7.1B for 2025 (up from €7B), reaching €9B by 2030
- EBITDA: Minimum €3.6B with 40% margins
- Capex: €4.7B allocated between 2026-2030 for EV development
Notably, Ferrari plans to return €7B to shareholders through dividends and buybacks by 2031, increasing its payout ratio to 40% of adjusted net income starting in 2025.
The Electrification Factor
Ferrari confirmed plans to launch four new models annually from 2026-2030, including its first fully electric vehicle—the Elettrica—due in late 2026. By decade's end, its lineup will consist of 40% combustion engines, 40% hybrids, and 20% EVs. "We're investing heavily in emotional electrification," Vigna stated, emphasizing the company's "tech neutrality" approach that preserves driving excitement across powertrains.
Analysts Divided on Ferrari's Future
While JP Morgan maintained Optimism about Ferrari's pricing power ("demand still vastly outstrips supply"), other analysts expressed concern about constrained operational leverage. As one BTCC market strategist noted: "When a luxury icon guides below expectations, it suggests either demand softening or execution risks—both problematic for a stock trading at 35x earnings."
Historical Context: Ferrari's Rollercoaster
This isn't Ferrari's first guidance-related volatility. In 2018, shares dropped 9% after then-CEO Sergio Marchionne warned about electrification costs. However, the 2025 selloff dwarfs that event, reflecting heightened investor sensitivity to growth trajectories in the luxury sector's transition era.
What This Means for Investors
The guidance reset forces a reevaluation of Ferrari's growth premium. While its brand strength and pricing power remain intact, the revised targets suggest a more mature growth profile than previously assumed. As always with Ferrari, the investment thesis hinges on whether you believe ultra-luxury can defy economic gravity.
Ferrari Stock Crash: Your Questions Answered
How much did Ferrari stock drop?
Ferrari shares fell 14.59% to $409.20 on the NYSE and 15.41% to €354 in Milan on October 9, 2025—its worst single-day decline ever.
Why did Ferrari lower its growth targets?
Management cited increased investment needs for electrification and a more conservative approach to scaling production capacity while maintaining exclusivity.
Is Ferrari still a good long-term investment?
Opinions differ. Bulls point to the brand's pricing power (waitlists remain 2+ years), while bears worry about execution risks in the EV transition and compressed multiples.
