Polymarket Traders Turn Against Hassett After Trump’s Remarks – Here’s Why $11.4M Still Backs Him
- How Did Trump’s Comments Reshape Polymarket Odds?
- Why Are 18% of Traders Still Betting on Hassett?
- What’s the Timeline for Trump’s Fed Decision?
- FAQ: Polymarket’s Fed Chair Betting Frenzy
Polymarket bettors swiftly shifted odds against Kevin Hassett following Donald Trump's comments about retaining his top economic advisor. Yet, despite Trump's ambiguous stance, a staggering $11.4 million in bets remain placed on Hassett to clinch the Federal Reserve chair role. This article breaks down the market reactions, candidate dynamics, and the high-stakes drama unfolding in Washington.
How Did Trump’s Comments Reshape Polymarket Odds?
At a WHITE House event last Friday, Trump publicly praised Hassett:The remark sent shockwaves through prediction markets. Within hours, Kevin Warsh’s nomination probability surged to 60% on Polymarket, while Hassett’s odds plummeted to 17%. By Monday, Warsh stabilized at 56%, with Hassett clawing back to 18%.
Why Are 18% of Traders Still Betting on Hassett?
Trump’s follow-up remark to aide Susie Wiles——kept hope alive for Hassett backers. Analysts note his perceived loyalty as a key factor. Meanwhile, Christopher Waller (15%) and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder (8%) trail significantly. Warsh’s recent moderate pivot contrasts with his historically hawkish Fed tenure, adding unpredictability.noted Wells Fargo strategists earlier this year.
What’s the Timeline for Trump’s Fed Decision?
With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May (though he could remain on the Board until 2028), TRUMP hasn’t set an announcement date. The delay fuels speculation, especially amid a controversial $2.5B Fed building renovation probe targeting Powell. Hassett defended Powell on Fox Business:The investigation has drawn bipartisan criticism, with Senator Thom Tillis threatening to block all Fed nominees over the controversy.
FAQ: Polymarket’s Fed Chair Betting Frenzy
Why did Hassett’s odds drop after Trump’s comments?
Trump’s suggestion that he’d prefer keeping Hassett in his current role made traders doubt a Fed chair promotion.
How much money is still riding on Hassett?
$11.4 million in Polymarket contracts remain active on Hassett despite his 18% implied probability.
Who’s the current favorite for Fed chair?
Kevin Warsh leads at 56%, per Polymarket, with Hassett at 18% and Waller at 15% as of January 2026.
