VanEck: Bitcoin’s Falling Hashrate Could Be the Bullish Signal You’re Waiting For

Bitcoin's computational power is dropping—and that might be the best news for your portfolio this holiday season.

The Miner Exodus Is a Classic Contrarian Signal

When mining gets tough, the weak hands pack up their rigs. That's exactly what's happening now. A falling hashrate doesn't mean the network is failing—it means inefficient operators are getting flushed out. The remaining miners? They're the hardened veterans, operating on razor-thin margins and pure conviction. This shakeout historically cleans the decks for the next leg up.

Less Hashpower, More Profit for the Survivors

Here's the brutal math fewer miners competing for the same block rewards. It's a simple case of reduced supply in the face of steady—or growing—demand. The miners who survive this squeeze see their profitability inch up. Their resilience becomes a foundational strength for the entire network, a signal that the system is self-correcting, not collapsing.

The Market's Weird, Wonderful Clockwork

This isn't a glitch; it's a feature. Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment is its genius autonomic response. It's the network taking a deep breath, finding a new equilibrium at a lower cost base. For investors, these periods of miner capitulation have repeatedly marked prime accumulation zones—the calm before the parabolic storm. It's the market being efficient, even if it looks like chaos to the suits watching from their Bloomberg terminals.

So, while Wall Street frets over hash rate charts, the smart money is reading between the lines. A little blood in the mining pools often precedes a tidal wave of green on the charts. Just don't expect your traditional finance advisor to get it—they're still trying to value Bitcoin with a discounted cash flow model.

Hashrate Weakness Has Historically Been a Bullish Signal

VanEck’s research suggests that sustained weakness in the Bitcoin hashrate has often served as a. Since 2014, Bitcoin has deliveredwhen the hashrate declined in the prior month. By comparison, when the hashrate increased, positive returns occurred in.

The trend becomes even more pronounced over longer periods. When the hashrate showed a negative trend over 90 days, Bitcoin posted positive returns over the following 180 days in, with an. This significantly outperformed periods of rising hashrate, which saw positive outcomes only.

Bitcoin Price and Mining Profitability

A market stabilization or price recovery could provide meaningful relief for miners. Rising Bitcoin prices generally improve mining profitability and may incentivize operators to bring previously idled machines back online.

As of the latest data from CoinMarketCap,, nearly.

Rising Costs Continue to Pressure Mining Firms

Despite the potential bullish signal, economic conditions for miners remain challenging. VanEck highlights a significant decline in the profitability of widely used mining hardware.

The breakeven electricity price for operating ahas dropped by roughly, falling to about. This underscores the financial strain facing many miners amid high energy costs and reduced revenues.

Analysts also attribute much of the recent hashrate decline to the shutdown of approximately. Some of this energy is expected to be redirected to, a shift that could eventually impact.

Government Support Remains a Key Variable

Not all governments are retreating from Bitcoin mining. VanEck estimates thatactively support or tolerate Bitcoin mining activities, including.

This level of state involvement could further reshape the geographic distribution of mining operations and enhance the long-term resilience of the Bitcoin network.

Overall, the latest developments highlight how closelyare intertwined within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

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