Real Estate Fund Jumps 20% in 2025, But BB Advises Caution—Here’s Why

• Why Is BB Investimentos Cautious Despite the 20% Rally?
• How RBIR11’s 2020 Launch Set the Stage
• Interest Rates and Sales Slowdown: The Double Whammy
• Will RBIR11 Extend Its Deadline?
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The RB Capital Desenvolvimento Residencial IV (RBIR11) real estate fund surged nearly 20% in 2025, yet BB Investimentos maintains a neutral stance. Analyst André Oliveira cites progress in construction and improved dividend payouts as key drivers, but warns of low liquidity and slowing sales due to high interest rates. With an extension of the fund’s deadline likely, investors face a tricky balancing act.

Why Is BB Investimentos Cautious Despite the 20% Rally?

BB Investimentos remains neutral on RBIR11 even after its stellar 2025 performance. Oliveira notes that while construction progress (up from 70% to 84%) and faster dividend distributions boosted returns, the fund’s illiquidity and slowing sales—just a 5% increase since February—warrant caution. "This isn’t a ‘buy the dip’ moment for conservative players," he says. "But for risk-takers, holding could pay off as new project deliveries unlock value."

How RBIR11’s 2020 Launch Set the Stage

Launched in 2020 with a six-year horizon (expiring February 2026), RBIR11 invested in 16 São Paulo residential projects targeting middle-to-high-income buyers. The fund’s focus shifted to maturing these assets, but early delays in sales and construction plagued its trajectory. By August 2025, deliveries jumped to 38% (from 13%), accelerating investor payouts—a rare bright spot.

Interest Rates and Sales Slowdown: The Double Whammy

High borrowing costs have hammered Brazil’s real estate market, and RBIR11 isn’t immune. Sales crawled to 75% in August, up just 5 percentage points since February. Distressed buyers are backing out, forcing the fund to explore risky workarounds like direct buyer financing (cutting out banks) and securitizing receivables. "Lowering unit prices could help, but it’d slash profitability," admits Oliveira.

Will RBIR11 Extend Its Deadline?

BB predicts an emergency shareholder meeting (AGE) soon to vote on extending the fund’s lifespan. Liquidation now WOULD mean investors get illiquid project stakes—a messy exit. "An extension makes sense, but it’s a Band-Aid," says a BTCC analyst. "The bigger issue is whether Brazil’s rate cuts will come fast enough to revive demand."

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Is RBIR11 a good buy after its 2025 rally?

For conservative investors, the 20% gain might be a take-profit window due to liquidity risks. Aggressive players could hold for potential upside from future deliveries.

What’s RBIR11’s biggest challenge?

Slowing sales. High interest rates have choked buyer demand, with sales up just 5% in six months despite construction progress.

Could the fund’s deadline be extended?

Likely. BB expects an AGE vote to avoid liquidating illiquid assets, but this doesn’t solve underlying sales issues.