XRP’s Bullish September Outlook Defies Widespread Bearish Sentiment

XRP positions for unexpected September surge as market sentiment hits bearish extremes.

Technical Resilience Meets Oversold Conditions

Despite negative market positioning, XRP's underlying technical structure shows remarkable resilience against broader crypto weakness. The token maintains critical support levels while institutional adoption continues behind the scenes—banking partnerships quietly expanding while retail traders panic-sell.

Regulatory Clarity Fuels Institutional Momentum

Clear regulatory standing provides XRP with unique advantage over competitors facing regulatory uncertainty. Financial institutions increasingly favor the token for cross-border settlements, creating steady demand that contradicts retail trader pessimism. Because nothing says 'bullish' like traditional finance finally figuring out how blockchain works—a decade later.

Market Dynamics Favor Contrarian Play

Extreme bearish positioning often precedes sharp reversals in crypto markets. XRP's relative strength against major cryptocurrencies suggests accumulating interest at current levels. The setup mirrors historical moments when consensus pessimism failed to account for fundamental progress and institutional accumulation patterns.

September could deliver the classic crypto move: punishing the majority while rewarding those who read beyond sentiment indicators.

Can XRP recover despite bearish sentiment?

XRP's performance in September WOULD largely depend on the United States (US) macroeconomic data. Market participants will closely monitor key inflation indicators, including the unemployment rate on Friday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) on September 10, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Jobless Claims on September 11.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will consider the above indicators, along with others, to assess the economy's status ahead of the central bank's interest rate decision on September 17.

According to the CME Fedwatch tool, there is an 87.6% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 4% to 4.25%, a potential lifeline for risk asset classes, such as crypto and equities.

FedWatch Tool | Source: CME Group

Investors are looking forward to the first interest cut this year, which could boost interest in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Positive market sentiment could accelerate demand for XRP and intensify the tailwind ahead of a potential rebound above the $3.00 mark.

Still, risk-averse sentiment could prevail if the Fed does not cut the rates. Risk assets could suffer setbacks, affirming the current concerns about bearish sentiment in September.

On the positive side, data shows that XRP has posted positive market returns in the last three consecutive Septembers. In 2022, XRP closed September up 46.2%. In 2023, the token posted a minor profit of 0.42%, which increased to 7.98% in 2024, according to CryptoQuant. 

There is a possibility that XRP will extend its profitable streak for the fourth consecutive year if sentiment improves in the coming days and weeks.

XRP monthly returns | Source: CryptoQuant

Retail interest in the international money remittance token remains relatively elevated NEAR the $8 billion mark. Traders will be watching the Open Interest (OI), which represents the notional value of outstanding futures contracts, to gauge market sentiment and optimism.

Technical outlook: XRP edges lower 

XRP price is struggling to hold the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.76 as bearish sentiment spreads in the broader cryptocurrency market. The path of least resistance is downward based on the prevailing technical picture.

A sell signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has been maintained since July 25, reinforcing the bearish grip. Traders may continue de-risking with the blue MACD line remaining below the red signal line.

XRP/USDT daily chart

Buying pressure is also on a decline as reflected by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 39 from its July peak of 88. Lower RSI readings would imply fading bullish momentum, as traders remain on the sidelines.

On the other hand, a daily close above the 100-day EMA, at $2.76, would go a long way to affirm a strengthening bullish grip. Key milestones include XRP's return above the $3.00 mark and a break above resistance at $3.35, tested in mid-August.

Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs

What is circulating supply?

The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.

What is market capitalization?

Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value.

What is trading volume?

Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.

What is the funding rate?

Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.