Crypto Bull Market Nearing Late Phase? Glassnode Analysts Drop Critical Insights
Is the crypto party starting to wind down? Glassnode's top analysts just dropped a reality check on where we stand in this bull cycle.
Reading the Tea Leaves
Market veterans know cycles don't die of old age—they get murdered by sentiment shifts and leverage unwinds. Glassnode's metrics now flash nuanced signals about maturation phases, not just exit doors.
Timing the Tops
Nobody rings a bell at the peak, but on-chain behavior paints a vivid picture of investor psychology. From coin dormancy to exchange flows, the data reveals more than price charts ever could.
Smart Money Moves
While retail FOMO still fuels some rallies, seasoned players already adjust strategies. They’re taking profits, hedging bets, and preparing for volatility—because in crypto, the only free lunch is the one you pack yourself.
So is this the late innings? Maybe. But in a market where ‘irrational’ lasts longer than most careers, timing remains the ultimate fool’s errand—right up there with predicting Fed moves or believing bank earnings reports.
Bitcoin could be nearing late phase of bull cycle amid weak demand
The report highlights that Bitcoin's current performance is showing similarity with the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles. A measure for evaluating this correlation is the number of days BTC's circulating supply has remained above the +1 standard deviation band, wrote Glassnode analysts. So far, the current period has stretched to 273 days, marking the second-longest run on record, behind the 335 days seen in the 2015–2018 cycle.
BTC Percent Supply in Profit (Days Above +1SD)
Bitcoin demand also dropped over the past week, marked by weak capital inflows despite hitting an all-time high of $124,000. Sell-side pressure also slowed following the record high, as realized profits declined compared to previous all-time high surges.
"The market failed to sustain upwards momentum, even though the sell-side pressure coming from existing holders was softer," Glassnode added.
Additionally, long-term holders, who are usually more active during market peaks, have realized more profit this cycle than in prior ones, except for 2016–2017.
"Taken together, these signals reinforce the view that the current cycle is firmly in its historically late phase," the analysts wrote.
With Bitcoin's diminishing demand, altcoins saw renewed interest in recent weeks, particularly across the derivatives market. Before the recent correction, open interest across major altcoins climbed to a record $60.2 billion over the weekend, largely driven by speculative activity around Ethereum.
The top altcoin's perpetual futures volume dominance surged to a new all-time high above Bitcoin's, reflecting rising capital rotation toward altcoins, Glassnode analysts noted. "Such a pronounced rotation in trading activity reinforces the growing focus of investors on the altcoin sector..."
BTC vs ETH Perpetual Futures Volume Dominance. Source: Glassnode
Historically, capital rotates from Bitcoin to altcoins during the late phase of the crypto bull market cycle. This often precedes the beginning of an altseason.
Bitcoin and ethereum (ETH) are changing hands at $112,800 and $4,250 in Asian trading hours on Friday.
