EUR/USD at Breaking Point—CPI and Jobs Data Fuel Volatility

All eyes on EUR/USD as inflation and labor stats threaten to disrupt range-bound trading.

Key levels in play: A breakout above 1.0950 could signal bullish momentum, while failure at 1.0820 may trigger stop-loss cascades. (Because nothing says ’efficient markets’ like algos hunting liquidity clusters.)

Next 48 hours critical: The ECB’s inflation headache meets Fed’s employment conundrum in a high-stakes macro showdown.

US Jobs Report in Focus for Dollar

Across the Atlantic, attention turns to the US April jobs report. Markets are expecting a sharp slowdown in hiring, 138,000 jobs vs 228,000 in March. Unemployment rate is seen at 4.2% and average hourly earnings 0.3% mom.

Adding to the dovish tone, US GDP data showed a surprise contraction. Traders are now pricing in up to 4 rate cuts by end of 2025. But a strong NFP print could challenge those expectations, boost the dollar and push EUR/USD lower.

Technical View: $1.1348 in Focus

EUR/USD is at a key technical juncture. The pair is consolidating at $1.1304 just below the trendline from April 22 which intersects with the 50 period EMA at $1.1339. Momentum is flat near the zero line – a sign of impending volatility.

🔹 Trade Setup:

• Buy Entry: On break above $1.1348 with strong confirmation

• Upside Targets: $1.1389, then $1.1424

• Stop-Loss: Below $1.1265 to guard against false moves

: Wait for a confirmed close above the trendline to avoid fakeouts. The coming data could be a breakout catalyst – or a trap.