Tesla Hits Rock Bottom—Will the Bounce Back to $300 Stick This Time?
Tesla’s stock finally bottoms out after a brutal selloff—because nothing says ’healthy market’ like a 30% plunge in 90 days. Now the question is whether TSLA can claw its way back above $300, or if this is just another dead-cat bounce for Elon’s hype machine.
Key factors to watch: Delivery numbers that actually match projections, Cybertruck demand beyond crypto bros, and whether Musk stops tanking the stock with midnight tweetstorms. The bulls swear this is the buying opportunity of the decade—but then again, they said that at $400 too.
Tesla’s Early 2025 Selloff: A Difficult Start
Following a peak in December 2024, Tesla’s stock endured a steep decline, pressured by disappointing vehicle delivery figures and broader concerns over weakening EV demand. By early April, investor sentiment had soured significantly, with expectations for the first-quarter earnings already lowered.
However, this cautious outlook turned out to be a blessing in disguise.
Soft Earnings, Strong Reaction: Markets Look Past the Short-Term
Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings report confirmed a slowdown: adjusted EPS came in at just $0.27, missing the Wall Street forecast of $0.42, and revenue fell short at $19.34 billion compared to expectations of $21.4 billion. The decline was largely driven by softer auto sales and continued price reductions across key markets.
Despite these misses, markets responded positively. Investors were reassured by Tesla’s ability to maintain profit margins, its reiterated long-term vision, and the commitment to launching new models. While the lack of forward guidance was noted, it did little to dent Optimism about the company’s innovative roadmap.
Regulatory Tailwinds Ignite a Rally
Tesla’s stock took off after the U.S. Department of Transportation announced a new Automated Vehicle Framework aimed at easing regulatory burdens. TSLA opened the week around $230 and closed at $285, marking an incredible 24% weekly gain — its strongest performance of 2025 so far.
Friday alone saw the stock jump another 10%, continuing the momentum that started just after Donald Trump’s re-election, which had already fueled a positive shift in risk sentiment.
Technical Setup: A Critical Test Ahead
From a technical perspective, the 100-week SMA (red) served as key support during the downturn, preventing a deeper collapse. The recent bounce from this level suggests a potential reversal is underway.
However, TSLA still trades about 40% below its all-time high set in December 2024. Bulls are now eyeing a breakout above $300 — the 2023 high — as confirmation of a full-fledged bullish reversal. A successful push through that level would likely shift momentum decisively back in favor of buyers, opening the path toward retesting record highs.
TSLA Outlook: $300 Is Not Too Far
Tesla’s recent surge shows the stock may have completed its correction phase. With innovation plans intact, regulatory support emerging, and technical levels holding firm, TSLA could be poised for a new leg higher — provided it can clear the key $300 resistance in the coming sessions.
