Bitcoin Has a 70% Chance of Hitting New All-Time Highs as ETF Inflows and Metrics Signal Breakout

• Is Bitcoin Poised for a Breakout as STH Metrics Indicate Balanced Market Conditions?
• How Do Futures Premiums and ETF Inflows Strengthen the Bullish Thesis?
• $124K or Correction First? Liquidity Gaps and Historical Patterns Weigh In
• Frequently Asked Questions

Bitcoin is teasing a potential breakout as it hovers NEAR $117K, with balanced STH metrics suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Market researcher Axel Adler Jr. predicts a 70% chance of BTC either rallying or consolidating over the next two weeks. Fueling the bullish case are a $2.3B ETF inflow surge and a positive futures premium. While liquidity gaps near $114K could trigger short-term dips, a close above $117.5K may confirm new highs. Historical trends and institutional demand add weight to the upside narrative, but September’s bearish reputation keeps traders on their toes.

Is Bitcoin Poised for a Breakout as STH Metrics Indicate Balanced Market Conditions?

Axel Adler Jr. argues that Bitcoin’s market setup is primed for liftoff, citing the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-scores hovering near zero for both 155-day and 365-day cohorts. This equilibrium—neither overbought nor oversold—mirrors conditions seen before previous bull runs. The BTCC team notes bitcoin currently trades just above the STH realized price, a consolidation pattern that historically precedes breakouts. Adler’s “Uptober incoming” quip references seasonal trends, though he cautions the breakout window spans 1-2 weeks. One trader quipped, “It’s like watching a coiled spring—the longer it consolidates here, the bigger the potential pop.”

How Do Futures Premiums and ETF Inflows Strengthen the Bullish Thesis?

Derivatives data reveals Bitcoin futures trading at a premium to spot prices, with weekly basis rates outpacing monthly—a classic bullish structure per TradingView charts. However, Adler spotted mild overheating pre-FOMC meeting, where rising costs met low trading volume, suggesting latecomers chasing momentum. “The base case remains solid,” he asserts, pegging 70% odds for either stepped upside or sideways action. Institutional demand adds jet fuel: BTC ETFs gulped $2.3B last week, their best inflow since June 2025. “When whales are buying dips instead of causing them, you pay attention,” remarked a BTCC analyst. Notably, this surge came despite September’s typical volatility, hinting at structural demand shifts.

$124K or Correction First? Liquidity Gaps and Historical Patterns Weigh In

Bitcoin’s 8.5% September climb to $117,246 left liquidity voids near $114K—potential pullback zones before continuation. Historical data from CoinMarketCap shows September has closed negative in 6 of the past 10 years. Yet 2025 defies norms: BTC outperformed 92% of top cryptos YoY with 95% price growth, trading above its 200-day SMA for 15 of the last 30 days. “This isn’t your grandma’s September,” joked one trader, referencing Bitcoin’s tendency this year to ignore minor liquidity levels for bigger fish. The July breakout past $105K exemplifies this—once daily structure broke, ATHs followed swiftly. A decisive close above $117.5K would signal a similar Break of Structure (BOS), drastically reducing odds of sub-$114K tests. Macro tailwinds like the proposed Bitcoin Act and ETF momentum suggest buyer support may emerge before deeper corrections. “It’s a tug-of-war between gaps and greed,” observed Adler, “but $124K looks increasingly plausible if institutional flows persist.”

Frequently Asked Questions

What’s driving Bitcoin’s potential breakout?

The convergence of balanced STH metrics, institutional ETF inflows ($2.3B weekly), and a bullish futures premium creates favorable technical and fundamental conditions.

Why does Axel Adler Jr. give 70% odds for upside?

Historical patterns show similar consolidation phases near STH realized price often precede breakouts, while derivatives data and seasonal trends ("Uptober") support continued momentum.

Could Bitcoin still correct to $114K?

Yes—liquidity gaps and September’s bearish reputation pose short-term risks, but strong institutional buying may limit downside before a potential push toward $124K.