Bitcoin Has a 70% Chance to Hit New All-Time Highs Thanks to ETF Inflows – Here’s Why
- Is Bitcoin Poised for a Breakout as STH Metrics Signal a Balanced Market?
- Why Are Futures Premium and ETF Inflows Boosting Bullish Momentum?
- Will Bitcoin Reach $124K, or Will Liquidity Gaps Trigger a Pullback First?
- FAQs: Bitcoin’s Path to New Highs
Bitcoin is back on the rise, and the stage is set for the cryptocurrency to reach new price heights. Market researcher Axel Adler Jr. predicts a 70% probability that BTC will hit a fresh all-time high within the next two weeks, fueled by strong ETF inflows and bullish derivatives data. However, liquidity gaps near $114K could trigger short-term pullbacks. Here’s a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current market dynamics, key indicators, and what traders should watch next.
Is Bitcoin Poised for a Breakout as STH Metrics Signal a Balanced Market?
According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s market conditions are well-balanced, setting the stage for a potential upward move. The Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-scores—a key indicator of market cycles—show that bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold. Currently, BTC is trading just above the STH realized price, suggesting a possible breakout after 1-2 weeks of consolidation. Adler Jr. also hints at a seasonal "Uptober" effect, historically a strong month for Bitcoin.
Why Are Futures Premium and ETF Inflows Boosting Bullish Momentum?
Bitcoin’s bullish case gets stronger with derivatives data showing futures trading at a premium to spot prices. The weekly basis is higher than the monthly basis—a classic sign of upward momentum. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2.3 billion in inflows last week, the highest in three months. This institutional demand, combined with technical strength, reinforces confidence in another rally. However, minor overheating signals were detected before the recent FOMC meeting, so traders should stay cautious.
Will Bitcoin Reach $124K, or Will Liquidity Gaps Trigger a Pullback First?
Bitcoin has surged 8.5% since late August, climbing from ~$107,600 to $117,246 at press time. But rapid price moves have left liquidity gaps NEAR $114K, which could cause short-term dips. September’s historically bearish trend adds to the risk. Key trends to note:
- Bullish sentiment dominates BTC price predictions.
- Year-to-date, BTC is up 95%, outperforming 92% of top cryptos.
- Trading above the 200-day SMA with 15 green days in the last 30.
A close above $117.5K WOULD confirm a breakout, reducing chances of a drop below $114K. If history repeats—like July’s surge past $105K—BTC could soon target $124K. Macro factors like the proposed BITCOIN Act and ETF demand may further support prices.
FAQs: Bitcoin’s Path to New Highs
What’s driving Bitcoin’s 70% chance of a new ATH?
ETF inflows ($2.3B last week), futures premiums, and balanced STH metrics suggest strong upside potential.
Could Bitcoin drop below $114K soon?
Liquidity gaps and September’s bearish history pose short-term risks, but a close above $117.5K would weaken this scenario.
How reliable are Axel Adler Jr.’s predictions?
His analysis aligns with on-chain and derivatives data, though markets remain volatile. Always DYOR.
