Petrobras (PETR4) Rises Nearly 1% After $32 Billion Plunge: Is It Time to Buy?

• Why Did Petrobras Shares Drop 6% Last Week?
• Q2 2025 Earnings: Strong Production, Mixed Signals
• Analyst Takes: Buy, Hold, or Sell?
• Dividend Drama: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain?
• Strategic Shifts: LPG and the Road Ahead
• Technical Outlook: Is the Bounce Sustainable?
• FAQ: Your Petrobras Questions Answered

Petrobras (PETR4) shares rebounded by 0.8% to R$30.78 on August 12, 2025, after a sharp 6% drop the previous trading session wiped out R$32 billion in market value. Analysts remain divided, with recommendations ranging from "buy" to "neutral." The company’s Q2 2025 earnings showed solid numbers, but dividend cuts and strategic shifts—like entering the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market—have sparked debate. While UBS BB maintains a bullish R$46 price target, others like Genial Investimentos urge caution. Here’s a DEEP dive into whether Petrobras is a smart buy post-tumble.

Why Did Petrobras Shares Drop 6% Last Week?

The sell-off on August 11, 2025, was triggered by a combination of profit-taking and disappointment over reduced dividends. Petrobras announced a Q2 dividend of just $1.5 billion (1.8% yield), below the $2 billion consensus. Ruy Hungria, an analyst at Empiricus Research, called the drop "overdone," noting the company’s EBITDA of $10.2 billion still beat expectations by 1%. "The dividend cut seems temporary," he said, emphasizing Petrobras’s still-attractive 10%+ annual dividend yield.

Q2 2025 Earnings: Strong Production, Mixed Signals

Petrobras reported a net profit of R$26.65 billion for Q2 2025, driven by increased oil output despite lower Brent crude prices. Capex surged 9% quarterly to $4.4 billion, with 84% allocated to Exploration & Production (E&P). The company is on track to meet its $18.5 billion annual investment target, a sign of commitment to its strategic plan. However, the LPG venture—announced alongside earnings—raised eyebrows. Genial Investimentos criticized the move as a distraction from Petrobras’s Core strengths.

Analyst Takes: Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Bullish on production growth, citing new platforms and well ramp-ups. They argue operational resilience offsets dividend concerns.
Praises fundamentals but warns of short-term volatility.
Questions the LPG strategy, calling it a "step back" in streamlining efforts.

Dividend Drama: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain?

The dividend cut stung income investors, but Petrobras’s yield remains among the highest in the sector. UBS BB notes that robust July production and a projected year-end output surge could justify holding the stock. "The 2026–2030 business plan might revise production targets upward," their report added.

Strategic Shifts: LPG and the Road Ahead

Petrobras’s inclusion of LPG distribution in its strategy marks a pivot. While some see diversification, others fear mission creep. "They’re veering into crowded, low-margin markets," said a BTCC analyst (who requested anonymity). Still, with oil prices volatile, hedging bets might be pragmatic.

Technical Outlook: Is the Bounce Sustainable?

TradingView charts show PETR4 testing key support at R$30. If it holds, the R$32–R$34 range could be next. Volume trends suggest cautious optimism, but macroeconomic risks (oil prices, Brazil’s fiscal policy) loom.

FAQ: Your Petrobras Questions Answered

Should I buy Petrobras (PETR4) now?

It depends on your strategy. Value investors might see a buying opportunity post-drop, while traders could wait for clearer technical signals.

Will dividends recover?

Likely, but not immediately. Petrobras prioritizes capex over extraordinary payouts until 2026.

How does LPG impact the investment thesis?

It adds uncertainty. Success hinges on execution in a competitive market.