Evonik Stock 2026: Downward Trend Solidifies Amid Structural Challenges

Why Is Evonik’s Stock Crashing?

Evonik’s shares have plummeted 28% over the past year, now trading at €12.63—just pennies above Berenberg’s grim €11.60 price target. The stock hit its 52-week low this Tuesday, down 43% from its peak of €22.26. Technical indicators paint a bleak picture: the price sits 5% below the 50-day moving average (€13.36) and a staggering 21% under the 200-day average (€16.03). The 14-day RSI of 15.8 screams "oversold," while 68% annualized volatility shows traders are running scared. "This isn’t just a dip—it’s a structural revaluation," notes a BTCC market strategist.

Analysts Sound the Alarm

Berenberg’s recent "Sell" rating upgrade sent shockwaves, but JP Morgan and Barclays aren’t offering hope either—both maintain neutral stances ("Equal Weight"). The consensus? Methionine margins are crumbling, Chinese competition is intensifying, and Europe’s chemical sector faces chronic overcapacity. TradingView data reveals sector-wide capacity utilization NEAR historic lows, with prices in freefall. "When even neutral analysts won’t defend a stock, you know it’s ugly," quips a Frankfurt trader.

The Methionine Meltdown

Evonik’s methionine business—a former cash cow—is now its Achilles’ heel. Chinese producers are flooding the market, driving prices down and squeezing margins. With new Chinese capacity coming online in 2026, the pain may worsen. "It’s like watching a slow-motion train wreck," admits a sector analyst, pointing to Q4 2025’s 12% year-over-year volume drop in European methionine sales.

Europe’s Chemical Crisis

The continent’s chemical industry is hemorrhaging. Energy costs remain elevated post-energy crisis, demand from auto and construction sectors is weak, and inventories are bloated. Evonik’s Q3 2025 earnings showed EBITDA margins contracting to 8.7%, down from 14.2% in 2024. "You’d need rose-tinted glasses to see a quick rebound," says a London-based fund manager, citing BASF and Lanxess’ parallel struggles.

Q4 Earnings: Make-or-Break Moment

All eyes turn to March 4, 2026, when Evonik reports Q4 2025 results. Key metrics to watch:

• Methionine segment margins (currently ~15%)
• Free cash flow (Q3: -€120M)
• Guidance on China capacity impacts

FAQ: Your Evonik Questions Answered

Is Evonik stock a buy now?

With 6 "Hold" and 3 "Sell" ratings, most analysts say no. The stock trades at 12x forward P/E—cheap, but with shrinking earnings, it could be a value trap.

How exposed is Evonik to China?

~18% of 2025 revenue comes from Asia, but Chinese competition in methionine poses an existential threat, not just a regional challenge.

What’s Evonik’s biggest strength?

Its specialty chemicals IP portfolio, but patents can’t offset pricing pressure in commoditized segments like methionine.