Thyssenkrupp Stock: Should Investors Be Worried in 2025?
- Why Is Thyssenkrupp Slashing Production?
- How Bad Is the Financial Damage?
- Can Europe’s "Green Steel" Survive Cheap Imports?
- What’s Next for Investors?
- FAQ: Thyssenkrupp’s Steel Crisis Explained
Thyssenkrupp’s steel division has activated emergency measures due to a surge in cheap imports and weak demand, forcing temporary production halts at key European plants. With 1,200 jobs at risk and a projected net loss of up to €800 million by 2025/26, the company faces a critical juncture. While the stock shows short-term resilience, long-term viability hinges on restructuring success and political intervention against unfair trade practices. Here’s a DEEP dive into the challenges and what they mean for investors.
Why Is Thyssenkrupp Slashing Production?
Thyssenkrupp’s steel arm is hitting the brakes hard. From mid-December 2025, its electrical steel plants in Gelsenkirchen (Germany) and Isbergues (France) will completely halt production until year-end. The French facility will then operate at just 50% capacity for at least four months. The reason? A double whammy: Asian competitors flooding Europe with low-priced imports and sluggish local demand. CEO Marie Jaroni calls it a "dramatic collapse in order volumes," leaving plants operating below the break-even threshold. For context, electrical steel is no ordinary commodity—it’s essential for transformers and wind turbines, making this a strategic vulnerability for Europe’s energy transition.
How Bad Is the Financial Damage?
The numbers paint a grim picture. Thyssenkrupp anticipates a net loss between €400-800 million for fiscal 2025/26, largely due to steel restructuring costs. To put that in perspective, the company’s market cap hovers around €5 billion as of December 2025. What’s puzzling is the stock’s muted reaction—shares inched up 0.3% to €8.92 on the news, though they’re down 33% from their 52-week high. Analysts at TradingView note the stock trades below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, signaling weakened momentum. "The market seems to be pricing in either a turnaround or a breakup," observes BTCC’s lead metals analyst. "But with steel contributing 28% of revenue, there’s no quick fix."
Can Europe’s "Green Steel" Survive Cheap Imports?
Here’s the irony: Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel produces grain-oriented silicon steel—a niche product vital for renewable infrastructure. Yet, Asian rivals (mainly China and India) now supply similar products at 20-25% lower prices, according to S&P Global data. The EU’s carbon border tax hasn’t leveled the field as intended. Jaroni is lobbying Brussels for emergency tariffs, arguing that losing this capacity WOULD make Europe dependent on foreign suppliers for energy infrastructure. "We’re not asking for handouts," she stated in a recent Handelsblatt interview. "We need trade policies that reflect actual production costs, including environmental compliance."
What’s Next for Investors?
Three key scenarios loom:
1.: If Thyssenkrup can cut costs by €1.2 billion as planned, steel could break even by 2027.
2.: Rumors suggest Tata Steel or ArcelorMittal might acquire parts of the business.
3.: Berlin and Paris could intervene, given steel’s strategic importance.
The wild card? Whether the EU acts on anti-dumping measures before Q2 2026. For now, the stock’s 112% 12-month gain suggests some see value—but volatility is guaranteed.
FAQ: Thyssenkrupp’s Steel Crisis Explained
How many jobs are at risk?
Approximately 1,200 positions across Gelsenkirchen and Isbergues face immediate uncertainty.
Why hasn’t the stock crashed?
Markets may be betting on restructuring gains or a potential spin-off of the steel unit.
Is Thyssenkrupp still a dividend stock?
Unlikely until 2027. The company suspended payouts in 2024 to preserve cash.
