Crypto Market Hopes for a Bull Run, But Data Signals a Bear Market in 2025

• Technical Indicators Paint a Bearish Picture
• Is This Just a Correction or the Start of a True Bear Market?
• Whales Accumulate While Retail Investors Panic
• Global Liquidity: The Bull Case's Last Stand
• Frequently Asked Questions

The crypto market is at a crossroads in late 2025, with investors clinging to hopes of a bull run while technical indicators increasingly point toward bearish territory. Bitcoin's recent breakdown below its 365-day moving average has sparked heated debates among analysts, with whales accumulating positions even as retail investors capitulate. This article examines the conflicting signals, from panic-level sentiment metrics to surprising whale activity, against the backdrop of unprecedented global liquidity that could still swing the market either way.

Technical Indicators Paint a Bearish Picture

Bitcoin's recent price action has veteran traders sounding alarms. The cryptocurrency broke below its critical 365-day moving average at $102,000, a level that historically separates bull markets from sustained downtrends. Legendary trader Peter Brandt pointed to a concerning pattern: "Does a sweeping reversal followed by 8 days of lower highs and the completion of a massive broadening top qualify as a bear market?" Brandt's price targets of $81,000 and then $58,000 suggest he believes we could see a significant decline. Data from TradingView shows derivatives markets added $3.3 billion in open interest during the recent downturn - the largest weekly increase since April - as overconfident traders kept "buying the dip" near $98,000 only to see prices continue sliding.

Is This Just a Correction or the Start of a True Bear Market?

Not all analysts are convinced we've entered bear territory. Some macro-focused observers argue this is simply a violent mid-cycle correction. As Crypto analyst Ran Neuner tweeted: "BULL MARKETS DON'T END LIKE THIS! I've been around for multiple bull/bear markets... When bull markets end, either something breaks or belief in the asset crumbles." The BTCC research team notes three key criteria for confirming a bear market: 1) bitcoin remaining below its 365-day average for 4-6 weeks, 2) long-term holders selling over 1 million BTC within two months, and 3) a market-wide negative MACD signal. Currently, only the first condition is beginning to materialize.

Whales Accumulate While Retail Investors Panic

An intriguing divergence has emerged between market sentiment and whale behavior. While fear indicators approach capitulation levels, the number of addresses holding 1,000+ BTC continues rising. As Bradley Duke of BTCC noted: "This is a fascinating chart... Large holders are keeping a level head and buying at discount prices from panic sellers." CoinMarketCap data shows retail investors, exhausted by volatility and false rallies, have been selling NEAR lows - a classic pattern where inexperienced traders exit at the worst possible time. The question remains whether the whales are correctly anticipating a rebound or underestimating macroeconomic headwinds.

Global Liquidity: The Bull Case's Last Stand

The strongest argument against a prolonged bear market comes from monetary policy. Over 80% of central banks worldwide are currently easing, pushing global liquidity to record highs. Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows dollar credit growing at 9% annually and euro credit expanding at 13% through Q2 2025. As the @MilkRoadMacro account tweeted: "As long as global liquidity is moving upwards... We have no fear that $BTC is going to do well." This flood of cheap money has historically benefited risk assets like crypto, leading some analysts to view the current pullback as another buying opportunity in an ongoing bull market.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the key indicators suggesting a bear market?

The primary red flags include Bitcoin breaking below its 365-day moving average, a pattern of lower highs on the charts, and extreme fear in market sentiment indicators comparable to 2022 lows. Technical analysts like Peter Brandt have identified bearish chart patterns with downside targets as low as $58,000.

Why are whales buying if we're entering a bear market?

Experienced large investors often accumulate during periods of panic, betting that short-term pessimism creates buying opportunities. Their actions suggest they view this as a correction rather than a structural bear market, though this could change if key support levels break.

How reliable is the 365-day moving average as an indicator?

Historically, this metric has been remarkably accurate at distinguishing between bull and bear markets. In both 2018 and 2021, sustained breaks below this level signaled major trend changes rather than temporary dips.

Could global liquidity prevent a crypto bear market?

Potentially. The unprecedented monetary easing by central banks creates an environment where risk assets often perform well. However, if inflation resurges and forces policy tightening, this support could vanish quickly.

What should investors watch to confirm the market direction?

Key signals include whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 365-day average, whether long-term holders continue selling, and whether the MACD turns negative on higher timeframes. The coming 4-6 weeks should provide clarity.