Is Strategy at Risk? What Happens to the Company If BTC Drops Below $74K in 2025?
- Why Is Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Under Scrutiny?
- Could a BTC Drop Below $74K Sink Strategy?
- What’s the Worst-Case Scenario?
- FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 649,870 BTC acquired at an average price of $74,433. As BTC hovers NEAR $80K, concerns arise about potential index exclusions and forced sell-offs. Analysts warn of an 80-95% chance of Strategy being removed from the Nasdaq-100, triggering $2.8T-$11.6T in passive outflows. If BTC falls below $74K, unrealized losses could pressure its stock (MSTR). However, Michael Saylor’s long-term treasury strategy and debt maturity timelines (2027-2032) provide buffers. This article dives into the risks, market reactions, and why Saylor isn’t sweating—yet.
Why Is Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Under Scrutiny?
Strategy holds a staggering 649,870 BTC, bought for $48.37 billion at an average of $74,433 per coin (CoinMarketCap data). With BTC near $80K, the position is profitable—but cracks are forming. The MSCI is reconsidering whether asset-heavy firms like Strategy should remain in traditional indices. If reclassified as a "fund," Strategy could face exclusion from the Nasdaq-100 by January 2026, per JPMorgan estimates. Passive funds tracking the index might dump $2.8B-$11.6T in MSTR shares, explains BTCC analyst Mark Ronsen. "It’s déjà vu from 2022’s liquidity crunch," he adds, "but Saylor’s debt structure buys time."
Could a BTC Drop Below $74K Sink Strategy?
If BTC retreats to $74K, Strategy’s unrealized gains vanish. MSTR, often a BTC proxy, WOULD likely nosedive—echoing its 30% drop in late 2025. Combine this with index exclusions, and liquidity dries up. Yet, margin calls aren’t imminent. Strategy’s $8B debt is mostly convertible notes maturing 2027-2032. "They’ll say we got lucky," Saylor tweeted on November 20, 2025, referencing past survival stories. TradingView charts show MSTR’s 90-day correlation with BTC at 0.89, meaning volatility is inevitable but not fatal.
What’s the Worst-Case Scenario?
Forced selling could erase 15-20% of Strategy’s market cap ($8T-$11T). However, Saylor insists the firm isn’t a "fund" but a tech innovator. The BTCC team notes that 70% of analysts expect index removals, yet Strategy’s bitcoin stash stays untouched. "No fire sales," says Ronsen. "Just stock turbulence." Historical data shows MSTR rebounded 120% post-2022’s crash—proof of its HODL grit.
FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
Could Strategy go bankrupt if BTC crashes?
Unlikely. Debt maturities are years away, and Bitcoin’s long-term thesis remains intact.
How likely is Nasdaq-100 exclusion?
JPMorgan pegs it at 70-90%, but MSTR’s stock may already price this in.
Will Saylor sell BTC to cover losses?
Doubtful. His playbook is "accumulate and endure," with zero BTC sold since 2020.
