Bitcoin Braces for Turbulence as US-China Talks and Inflation Data Loom
Macro storm clouds gather over crypto markets
Bitcoin traders are buckling up for potential volatility this week as two major risk factors converge: high-stakes US-China trade negotiations and fresh inflation data hitting the wires. The CPI and PPI reports could either validate or undermine the Fed's 'higher for longer' rate stance—because nothing says 'sound monetary policy' like watching hedge funds front-run government statistics.
While technicals show BTC clinging to key support levels, any hawkish surprises from economic data or diplomatic tensions might trigger liquidations. That said, seasoned crypto degens know these shakeouts often create prime buying opportunities—when everyone's panicking, the smart money stacks sats.
Bitcoin Traders Eye US-China Trade Deal, Macro
Bitcoin price is flat today at $105,629 after a volatile last week. Market focus remains on the US-China trade talks, with President Donald TRUMP announcing that officials from both nations will meet in London later today.
The MOVE comes after a phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last week, raising hopes for investors. The Trump tariff war has rattled markets globally.
Meanwhile, the focus is turning on key US inflation data, with the CPI due on Wednesday and the PPI set for release on Thursday. After the recent jobs report that came in slightly stronger than expected, traders look out for the inflation data to gain more insights on the markets in the coming weeks.
Economists forecast CPI inflation data to come in higher at 2.5%, from 2.3% last month, as a result of the trade war. Also, the PPI data is estimated higher at 2.6%, up from 2.4% last month. This may came the Fed to cut rates early this year.
Bitcoin Price Action Looks Weak
Popular analyst Benjamin Cowen predicted Bitcoin price a fall below $100K for the short term before a rebound back to $103K-$104K. Despite the retracement from an all-time high, BTC price trend remains bullish.
Moreover, the aggressive buying and holding from companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet, as well as new companies adopting the Bitcoin reserve strategy, prevented any major drop. Metaplanet announced a plan to raise $5.4 billion to buy 210,000 BTC by 2027.
Bitcoin price is successfully holding above the 50-day moving average despite a crypto market crash last week. However, RSI continues to drop, with a reading of 53.50 at the time of writing. This suggests the uncertainty in the market, with the price facing resistance near $106,200.
Moreover, the 20-EMA (blue) may cross below the 50-EMA (red) in the coming weeks, as the two move closer. Thus, US-China trade talks and key inflation readings will drive the market direction for this and the upcoming week to the FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin trading in the derivatives market also remains flat currently. The BTC for all at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) have dropped, which signals low expectations of any major price swings.
