Bitcoin’s Next Major Move Post-FOMC: Why Holding Above $115,200 Is Critical
Bitcoin faces its ultimate test as markets digest the latest FOMC decision—all eyes are on that crucial $115,200 support level.
Breaking Down the Battle Line
Hold above it, and bulls might just have the momentum for another leg up. Drop below? Well, let's just say even the most optimistic traders might start sweating. The Fed's latest chatter didn't exactly throw crypto a bone—typical finance folks still trying to fit decentralized money into their centralized boxes.
Market Mechanics in Play
Institutional flows aren't waiting around for permission. Whale activity spikes every time traditional finance hesitates—because why would you trust a system that still uses fax machines?
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin doesn't need Wall Street's approval, but watching that $115,200 level tells you everything about who's winning the narrative war. Guess we'll see if the 'digital gold' narrative holds more weight than the old guard's spreadsheets.
Bitcoin trades above cost basis levels for 95%, 85%, and 75% of supply, with current price NEAR $117k approaching all-time highs. Image: Glassnode
Derivatives markets signal fragile positioning
Perpetual futures markets have shown stabilization after a period of volatile pre-FOMC positioning.
Open interest declined from a cycle high of 395,000 BTC on Sept. 13 to 378,000 BTC following choppy price action, but has since stabilized between 378,000 BTC and 384,000 BTC.
The pullback to $115,000 after the rate cut triggered significant long liquidations, pushing liquidation dominance to 62%.
Current positioning reveals a fragile market structure with long-side max pain at $112,700 and short-side max pain at $121,600.
This narrow range suggests bitcoin sits precariously between potential liquidation cascades, where downside moves risk triggering long positions while upside breaks could fuel short squeezes.
Record options activity highlights volatility
Bitcoin options open interest has reached a record 500,000 BTC, with Sept. 26 marking the largest expiry in Bitcoin’s history.
The contract’s strike distribution spans $95,000 puts to $140,000 calls, with max pain near $110,000 acting as a potential gravitational pull until expiry.
Options positioning shows consistent put selling below spot and intensified call buying above current levels.
This structure forces dealers to provide liquidity in both directions, potentially cushioning declines while fueling rallies through hedging flows.
Market structure reflects cautious optimism
The spot market cumulative volume delta shows mild negative deviations across major exchanges, indicating cautious sentiment despite the Optimism surrounding the rate cut.
However, perpetual markets demonstrate a notable shift from extreme selling to balanced conditions. This movement reflects returned liquidity as buy-side flows offset persistent August sell pressure.
The convergence of record options positioning, stabilized perpetual flows, and Bitcoin’s position above critical cost basis levels suggests a market awaiting confirmation of its next major move.
Bitcoin’s capacity to stay above $115,200 will define the next major post-FOMC movement
