Polymarket Traders Bet Big: Trump Ditches Crypto in Putin Talks, Zelensky Mention Sparks Frenzy

Polymarket's prediction markets just got geopolitical—and traders are placing wild bets on how crypto plays into high-stakes diplomacy.

Trump's Cold Shoulder to Crypto

Contracts surged as speculators wagered Trump would avoid mentioning digital assets during his meeting with Putin. Because nothing says 'strong foreign policy' like ignoring the $2T elephant in the room.

Zelensky as the Dark Horse

The real action? Traders piled into contracts betting on Ukraine's president getting a shoutout. Apparently, Polymarket degens think Volodymyr has better crypto PR instincts than former POTUS.

Meanwhile in Finance Twitter...

Hedge fund managers watching this unfold: 'Finally, a use case for prediction markets—settling our office debates about which world leader understands monetary disruption least.'

A separate Polymarket contract speculates on the length of the leaders’ handshake, drawing over $180,000 in total volume. The most traded outcome is a duration of 10 seconds or longer, at 24% with $56,092 volume, followed by 4–6 seconds at 27% and 2–4 seconds at 20%. The least probable outcome is under two seconds at just 4%.

The Alaska summit marks the first in-person Trump–Putin meeting since 2019 and the first U.S.-hosted bilateral meeting with a Russian leader since 2007.

As the Washington Post reported, the talks come without Ukrainian participation, a decision that has drawn objections from Kyiv and European allies. Per the Guardian, the Kremlin is expected to bring economic proposals alongside territorial demands related to the war in Ukraine.

Polymarket, which allows users to trade on crypto event outcomes, has become a closely watched barometer for sentiment around political and geopolitical events. The platform previously hosted a market on whether the summit would take place at all, which saw nearly $3 million in total wagers before resolving “Yes” with the meeting’s confirmation. Market prices shift dynamically as traders buy and sell shares in “Yes” or “No” outcomes, reflecting the crowd’s real-time assessment of probabilities.

The event’s timing has drawn interest from traders monitoring potential impacts on energy and macro markets. As MarketWatch noted, oil futures could react to any perceived breakthrough or breakdown in talks, with possible price swings of several dollars per barrel.

Bitcoin and Ethereum, which MOVE in response to macro and geopolitical developments, may also be influenced by post-summit sentiment, though the dedicated “Crypto/Bitcoin” term market implies traders do not expect the asset class to feature in Trump’s public remarks.

Trump is scheduled to hold the joint news conference following his one-on-one meeting with Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson. The markets on Polymarket will close once the event concludes and recorded evidence confirms the results, with any absence of a public appearance by August 16 triggering a “No” resolution across all contracts.