Bitcoin at a Crossroads: CPI Data Could Spark $110K Retest or Send BTC to New All-Time Highs

All eyes on today's CPI print—Bitcoin's next move hinges on whether inflation data fuels risk-on euphoria or sends traders scrambling for cover.

The $110,000 level looms as a critical psychological battleground. Breakthrough here, and we're in price discovery mode. Rejection? Expect leveraged longs to get liquidated faster than a Wall Street intern's coffee run.

Market makers are playing both sides—volatility smiles widen while OI builds. This isn't your 2021 bull market; today's traders actually check macro data before apeing in.

One thing's certain: When CPI drops at 8:30 EST, the algo reaction will make or break the weekly chart. Just remember—in crypto, 'data-dependent' often means 'narrative-dependent'.

Recovering flows

The recovery follows a sharp reversal in exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows. Between July 31 and Aug. 5, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows exceeding 1,500 BTC, equivalent to approximately $1.45 billion, representing the largest four-day selling stretch since April 2025.

However, the three trading sessions since August 5 produced $769 million in net inflows, restoring market confidence.

The report argued that given the correlation between ETF flows and macroeconomic outcomes in recent months, the recovery registered recently could be pivotal in determining whether BTC breaks above range highs toward new all-time highs or retests recent lows instead.

Corporate treasury support continues

Corporate crypto adoption has provided structural support as treasury companies increasingly follow the “Strategy Playbook.” The combined net asset value of crypto treasury companies has risen steadily since early April, approaching all-time highs above $90 billion. 

This institutional accumulation reflects a shift toward treating crypto as strategic reserves rather than speculative trades. 

Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance has declined recently, signaling a rotation of speculative capital toward altcoins ahead of the macroeconomic data release. Bitcoin currently trades above the short-term holder cost basis of $106,709, positioning it in a “warm but not overheated” zone typical of mid-phase bull market conditions.

The report showed 45% of recently acquired BTC being sold for gains, with approximately 70% of the short-term holder supply remaining in profit. The balanced market backdrop suggests continued volatility around key macro data releases.

However, the conditions and oscillation between the range highs and lows are likely to continue, given the price pattern of constantly moving above and below the cost basis of recent investors. 

Despite the risk of a potential retracement toward $110,000, the report assessed that the broader structural outlook remains constructive given institutional accumulation and resilient spot demand.