Polymarket Bets 96.3% Against Fed Rate Cut—Trump’s ‘Ready to Ease’ Claim Defied

Markets call BS on Trump’s Fed optimism—prediction markets show near-certainty rates won’t budge.

While the former president insists the central bank is ‘ready’ to pivot, Polymarket traders aren’t buying it. Their 96.3% odds scream ‘hold steady’—because when has the Fed ever moved fast enough for politicians?

Another day, another disconnect between political jawboning and cold, hard betting liquidity. Some things never change in finance—especially the hype-to-reality ratio.

The backdrop

The bets come amid an unusually public dispute between President Donald TRUMP and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has argued that the Fed should have started cutting rates. During a July 24 visit to the Fed’s renovation site, he reiterated his stance and advocated for sharp reductions. 

Meanwhile, Powell has continued to say that policy will remain data-dependent, with officials monitoring how tariffs and other factors impact inflation before considering easing. 

During the same visit, Trump stated that the renovation WOULD cost $3.1 billion, a figure Powell subsequently corrected, noting that the amount included costs from a different building that had been refurbished years earlier. 

The exchange highlighted the broader tension over the Fed’s independence and followed Trump’s earlier suggestions, later tempered, that he could remove Powell before the end of his term. 

Low odds of Powell resigning

Contracts tied to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tenureof immediate upheaval. 

The Polymarket odds on whether Powell will be out as chair by July 31 are trading around 1%, the August 31 version is NEAR 5%, and a longer‑dated market puts the probability of his departure by year-end 2025 at about 17%. 

Together, the Polymarket contracts suggest that participants expect no policy change next week and do not anticipate an imminent shake-up in Fed leadership, even as the medium-term probability of Powell’s exit has edged higher through year-end. 

For now, prediction markets align with most public Fed guidance, which is to hold steady, assess the data, and avoid pre‑committing to cuts.