Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Fractures as Institutional Adoption Rewrites the Rules

Bitcoin’s halving-era predictability is crumbling—and Wall Street’s fingerprints are all over the crime scene.

Market maturity kills old patterns

The asset once governed by miner sell-pressure and retail hype now dances to institutional algorithms. Spot ETF flows outweigh halving supply shocks, while derivatives volumes make 2017’s bull run look like a lemonade stand.

New players, new game

BlackRock’s Bitcoin desk doesn’t care about your lunar cycle charts. Pension funds allocating 1% to crypto laugh at ‘to the moon’ memes. Even the Fed’s rate decisions now impact BTC more than any block reward reduction.

The cynical take? Finance always co-opts rebellion—first it was ‘blockchain not Bitcoin,’ now it’s ‘institutional adoption’ as the latest excuse for centralized control. But try telling that to traders banking 300% annualized yields on volatility plays.

Why Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is dead

According to Hougan, while Bitcoin halvings once played a pivotal role in driving supply shocks and fueling bull markets, their influence is waning.

He also noted that the broader macro environment has also shifted. Interest rates no longer exert the same downward pressure on crypto markets as they did in previous cycles.

Hougan added that clearer regulatory structures are emerging across the crypto industry. This, combined with greater institutional oversight, has helped reduce the extreme volatility and collapse risk that once plagued the market.

According to Hougan, the crypto landscape is evolving longer and more strategically now. Asset flows into spot bitcoin ETFs, which began in earnest in 2024, are expected to continue over the next decade.

Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions, from pension funds to national account platforms, are only just beginning to offer crypto access to their clients.

Additionally, legislative support, such as the recent passage of the Genius Act, is further accelerating Wall Street’s entry into the space, setting the stage for sustained capital inflows.

Obsolete

This sentiment is echoed by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who recently walked back earlier bearish calls based on the old cycle model.

In April, Ju warned that Bitcoin’s rally had peaked NEAR $80,000, yet the asset continued its ascent, eventually surpassing $123,000 this month.

Reflecting on that miss, Ju stated that the traditional accumulation-distribution dynamic—where whales sell into retail demand—no longer holds. Instead, institutional investors and corporate treasuries are emerging as the dominant buyers, reshaping market behavior and reducing speculative churn.

What’s next for Bitcoin?

As a result, these deeper structural shifts are challenging long-held assumptions about Bitcoin.

Considering this, Hougan suggested that the market is moving away from boom-bust cycles toward more consistent, long-term growth.

While he acknowledges the potential for short-term volatility, he sees 2026 as a year of strong performance driven by lasting adoption trends rather than reflexive market patterns.