Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rally: $130K Target in Sight Before Demand Fades
Bitcoin's bull run isn't hitting the brakes yet—analysts see a clear path to $130,000 before the market cools off. Here's why the rally still has legs.
The FOMO is real—and so is the momentum
Institutional inflows and retail frenzy are fueling the fire, pushing BTC past resistance levels like a hot knife through butter. The $130K target isn't just hopium—it's backed by on-chain data and futures open interest screaming 'higher.'
When does the music stop?
Not yet. Exchange reserves are thinning, and miners aren't dumping—classic signs of a supply squeeze. Even Wall Street's latecomers are finally shuffling in, though they'll probably buy the top (as usual).
The cynical take
Sure, the rally could stall if macro tanks or regulators wake up. But until then? Enjoy the ride—and watch the 'smart money' overpay for their FOMO. Again.
Positioning above heavy cost bands
The report examined its Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap and found concentrated acquisition in the two lower zones that Bitcoin just cleared. Clearing those supply shelves often converts them into support, as previously underwater or flat‑PnL holders turn into defenders of entry cost.
With spot now well above both clusters, desks tracking downside absorption will watch whether bids reappear if bitcoin revisits the $104,000 to $110,000 band.
Profit saturation builds
The report also assessed Glassnode’s Cost-Basis Distribution Quantiles, which showed a spot above the 95th percentile level at $107,400. This places the bulk of the circulating supply in profit.
Furthermore, the report stated that sharp bursts above this percentile in prior cycles drew heavier profit-taking as a widening investor base captured gains, raised aggregate cost bases, and created more price-sensitive ownership structures.
That dynamic can lead to top-heavy conditions when repeated on a larger scale.
Bitcoin ROSE to $122,600 and then retraced to $115,900 as investors sold into strength once the price extended more than one standard deviation above the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis.
Historical studies in the report indicate that STH+1 frequently serves as a tactical resistance zone during speculative phases.
The report identified the next resistance at the STH+2 band near $136,000. Traders eyeing a psychological $130,000 level view it as an intermediate waypoint within that statistical range.
Demand exhaustion risk
Short‑term holder conditions now sit in the early overheated zone. The report measured 95% of STH supply in profit, more than one standard deviation above the long‑term mean of 88% and the third such break since early May 2025.
It concluded that repeated excursions into overheated profit realization territory have historically preceded broader market demand exhaustion.
