🚀 Bitcoin to $120K? Polymarket Traders Place 75% Bet on 2025 Price Surge as Volume Spikes 30%

Polymarket's prediction markets are flashing bullish—three out of four traders now back Bitcoin's march to $120,000 before 2025 ends. And they're putting real money behind it.

Volume on the controversial 'BTC $120K by 2025' contract just surged 30% this week. Either crypto degens smell blood in the water, or they've forgotten how often 'sure thing' bets get rekt in this space.

Wall Street analysts would call this 'price discovery.' We call it gambling with extra steps—and better memes.

This activity is set against a backdrop of significant evolution for Polymarket itself. According to data from Dune Analytics, the platform’s user base and volume expanded during the 2024 U.S. election, driving monthly volume to a peak of $2.6 billion in November 2024.

In the months following the election, a new baseline of activity was established. Last month’s trading volume stood at $1.16 billion, a figure over nine times higher than the volume recorded in June last year.

The number of active traders, at 241,000 last month, was similarly more than seven times higher than the previous year. This suggests the platform retained a portion of the audience it acquired during the high-profile political event.

The composition of platform activity appears to be shifting. Since a peak of 455,000 active traders in January 2025, the number of participants has declined by 47%.

In contrast, platform volume has rebounded, growing 30% from April to June 2025. This divergence may point to a consolidation of activity among a smaller group of more heavily capitalized or higher-conviction traders.

The average volume per trader has recovered from a low of approximately $2,000 in February 2025 to around $4,800 in June 2025, which supports the idea that existing users are trading in larger sizes. Recent reports note the platform’s growth and its recent partnership with X, which Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan framed as the union of “the two top truth-seeking apps.”

While prediction markets offer a novel FORM of sentiment analysis, their forecasts reflect current, crowd-sourced beliefs and not certain outcomes.

The user base may not represent the broader financial world, and all markets carry inherent risks, including the potential for manipulation by actors with large amounts of capital. However, Polymarket outperformed almost all traditional polling methods during the U.S. 2025 election. Still, the regulatory environment for prediction markets also remains complex in various jurisdictions, such as the U.S. itself, even amid its latest $1 billion valuation.

Nonetheless, the substantial volume and clear directional probability on display provide a distinct, data-driven perspective on where active traders expect Bitcoin’s price to trend as of its press time price of $109,093.