Dollar’s Decline & M2 Explosion: Bitcoin Primed for H2 2025 Rally

The greenback stumbles as money printers go brrr—and Bitcoin's licking its chops.

When the Fed's monopoly money meets a weakening reserve currency, crypto tends to eat. Here's why the stars align for a BTC breakout.

M2 Tsunami Meets Dollar Decay

Pandemic-era liquidity hooks are still in the system's veins. Now add a dollar index sliding like a Wall Street intern's productivity—BTC's scarcity play looks tastier than a 3am DeFi yield farm.

The Institutional FOMO Factor

BlackRock's ETF approval was just the appetizer. Real money's finally realizing gold 2.0 doesn't come with JP Morgan's grubby fingerprints all over it.

Watch for the 'Volcker moment'—when legacy finance admits they need Bitcoin's balance sheet more than Bitcoin needs theirs. (Spoiler: that's when the real fun starts.)

*Cynical finance jab*: Meanwhile, your bank's 'high-yield' savings account still pays less than a Vegas slot machine's RTP.

According to analysts from The Kobeissi Letter, this marks the 19th consecutive monthly increase and surpasses the previous peak of $21.86 trillion recorded in March 2022.

Even more telling is the inflation-adjusted M2, which ROSE 2.1% over the same period. This marks the most significant inflation-adjusted increase in over two years. Since 2020, the US money supply has surged by nearly $7 trillion, representing an increase of roughly 45%.

Meanwhile, the sharp rise in liquidity comes at a time of historic weakness for the US dollar. The Kobeissi Letter notes that the Dollar Index dropped by 10.8% during the first half of 2025.

This represents the worst H1 performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 and the weakest six-month stretch since 2009.

Analysts say this continuous decline reflects the dollar’s eroding purchasing power and signals long-term structural issues.

What does this mean for Bitcoin?

For the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, this environment could prove pivotal in attracting more capital to the industry.

The rising M2 level is often bullish for the top crypto because it indicates abundant liquidity in the system. That liquidity often finds its way into higher-risk assets, like Bitcoin, when traditional stores of value begin to falter.

While it remains uncertain whether this momentum will spur a continued Bitcoin rally, many investors believe the conditions favor the bellwether digital asset.

Prior to Bitcoin’s recent sideways movements, analysts on Crypto Twitter were sharing screenshots of the M2 supply rise in 2025 (lagged by 90 days) alongside bitcoin charts almost daily. However, while M2 has continued on its upward trajectory, Bitcoin has stalled recently.

Bitcoin could benefit from a renewed wave of capital seeking returns beyond fiat currencies if the trend realigns.