Bitcoin’s $170K Rally: The Bull Run Nobody Saw Coming
Bitcoin just flipped the script—again. The $170,000 price target, once dismissed as hopium, is back on the table. Here’s why the market’s betting big.
The catalysts no one’s talking about
Institutional inflows? Check. Supply shock? Double-check. TradFi analysts scrambling to update their 'bubble' narratives? Priceless.
Short squeeze or sustainable surge?
This isn’t 2021’s leverage-fueled mania. On-chain data shows whales accumulating at levels last seen before the 2024 halving—back when Wall Street still thought NFTs were about monkey jpegs.
The cynical take
Watch hedge funds FOMO in now that retail’s already done the heavy lifting. Classic.
Why the sudden risk-on mood?
- A (sort-of) “trade peace” with Vietnam. Trump tweeted a “great, great” deal overnight: Vietnamese exports now get a flat 20 % tariff, with a punitive 40 % slapped on any Chinese goods sneaking through Hanoi’s ports. In return, U.S. products enter Vietnam tariff-free. Wall Street exhaled; the Nasdaq was up roughly 0.8 % by lunch.
Contrarian take: a 20 % tariff is still a tariff. Investors are cheering the removal of a 46 % sledgehammer that was due next week — classic “less bad = good” logic. The inflationary impulse of yet more tariffs gets papered over until CPI prints start barking. - The first U.S. staking ETF actually landed. REX-Osprey’s Solana + Staking ETF (ticker SSK) racked up ~$20 million volume in its first session — top-1 % territory for a fresh listing. For context, SOLZ – a futures-only SOL fund – managed a measly $1 million on day one.
Why it matters: Wall Street just discovered you can collect on-chain yield inside a brokerage account. If SSK doesn’t get shut down by the SEC, expect ETH, ATOM and DOT clones to queue up.
Bitcoin is closing in on $110,000, new all time high next? Source: BNC Bitcoin Liquid Index
July: three ticking policy bombs
| Date | Policy wrinkle | Why crypto cares |
| by 5 Jul | “Big Beautiful Bill” — $3.3 T deficit-ballooning tax-and-spend extravaganza | More Treasury issuance, more money-printing optics; scarce assets like BTC catch a safe-haven bid. |
| 9 Jul | Reciprocal-tariff deadline | A missed deal with EU/India could re-ignite global trade wars and spike volatility. |
| 22 Jul | Crypto executive-order drop-dead date (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve update) | Markets want clarity: will the Treasury add to its ±200 K BTC hoard or just reshuffle seized coins? |
K33’s Vetle Lunde sums it up: “July is crowded with latent TRUMP volatility … leverage is contained, so spot holders should stay patient.”
Translation: fireworks are coming, but the casino isn’t over-levered like 2021. HODLers have chips to survive a 15 % shake-out.
Liquidity, the quiet giant
- Global broad money (M2) just hit $55.48 trillion — an all-time high.
Bitcoin historically lags M2 expansions by three to six months; the April break above $100K followed the money tide in just a fortnight. If the pattern holds, Q3/Q4 could be the real melt-up phase. - Dollar wrecking ball? Try dollar marshmallow. DXY has already shed 10.8 % year-to-date — its ugliest first-half showing since Nixon killed Bretton Woods in ’73.
A softening greenback lowers the hurdle for BTC to print fresh highs in any currency.
If Bitcoin continues to follow M2 then Bitcoin is about to hit new all time highs and go vertical. Our Bitcoin price prediction suggests $120,000 and beyond. Source: X
Put those together and bitcoin bulls are pegging the next magnet at $170K — essentially a 55 % rally from here.
Hot take: If the Fed blinks and cuts into a deficit tsunami, $170K isn’t moon-boy talk — it’s base case.
Things the perma-bulls are ignoring
Strategy snapshot
- Spot maxis: No leverage blow-outs on-chain, real-world liquidity tailwind, and a regulatory bid via the Strategic Reserve. Staying long makes sense.
- Traders: July’s calendar screams two-sided volatility. Gamma scalping around $106-112K looks juicy.
- Alts: SOL hype helps, but watch ETH – if Congress sniffs at proof-of-stake rewards as “unregistered yield”, staking ETFs may stall before they start.
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s charge toward $110K isn’t just another ETF-flow head-fake. It’s a cocktail of deficit-driven liquidity, a weaker dollar, and Washington’s sudden love affair with “strategic” crypto. But July is littered with legislative grenades. If they all detonate smoothly (rare, but not impossible), the path to $170K is wide open. If not, expect a gut-check that shakes out late longs before the real party starts.
Either way, keep the popcorn handy — and maybe a little dry powder. This month is going to be loud. Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin? You need to make that decision for yourself. All signs point to yes.
