Bitcoin Roars Back to $104K After Geopolitical Shock Fizzles—Traders Breathe (For Now)

Whiplash alert: Bitcoin's price action just gave HODLers whiplash as it reclaimed $104,000 after briefly dipping below six figures. The trigger? Iran's failed military strike—and the market's snap judgment that geopolitical tensions might actually de-escalate.

Volatility as a feature, not a bug

Crypto markets treated the news like a caffeine-fueled day trader—overreacting first, asking questions later. When the attack fizzled, Bitcoin's rebound was as sharp as its drop. Classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' behavior—except this time traders bought the fear and sold the... well, slightly less fear.

Wall Street analysts scrambling

Meanwhile, traditional finance pundits are still trying to explain Bitcoin's moves using 20th-century risk models. Good luck with that—the only 'beta' that matters here is the market's adrenaline beta. One thing's clear: when the rockets fly, Bitcoin's still the best hedge against incompetent geopolitics (and incompetent monetary policy).

Range, leverage, and what to watch

Despite the recent volatility caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East, bitcoin has shown resilience, trading above the six-figure level for the vast majority of it.

Bitfinex Alpha’scalled exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows “remarkably stable,” arguing that spot funds now act as a programmatic floor. 

The report pegged the zone between $94,000 and $95,000 as critical support, and the range between $105,000 and $110,000 as near-term resistance. Until weekly inflows re-accelerate past $1.5 billion or a fresh macro catalyst emerges, analysts expect prices to oscillate inside that corridor.

Derivatives data support the view of contained volatility. Futures open interest stands NEAR $52.8 billion and options near $43.4 billion. Combined interest remains elevated at roughly $96 billion but has retreated from the $114 billion peak after a $14 billion deleveraging flush last week. 

Funding rates now sit in a “healthier zone,” suggesting capital is rotating into longer-horizon positions instead of short-term punts. The report warned that a renewed build-up of crowded leverage could trigger sharp liquidations, yet current metrics imply a firmer base.

ETF flows remain the fulcrum. Steady or rising allocations, especially during US hours when most spot-driven discovery occurs, WOULD favor retests of the $110,000 cap. Conversely, a sustained week of net outflows would mark the first serious sign of rotational risk and could drag BTC back toward the mid-$90,000s, particularly if accompanied by fresh geopolitical stress.