Bitcoin Defies Gravity: $100K Becomes Unshakable Mental Support Level
Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin''s refusal to collapse below the $100,000 threshold reveals something fascinating—traders now treat six figures as the new psychological floor. This isn''t just technical analysis; it''s a mass conviction play.
Wall Street analysts clutching their pearls at ''irrational'' crypto markets might want to check their own balance sheets—after all, traditional finance still runs on fractional reserve fairy dust and Fed printer go brrr.
When even a 15% pullback can''t break the $100K barrier, you''re witnessing market structure evolution in real-time. Either that or the greatest greater fool theory experiment in history. Place your bets.
Capitulation limited to recent entrants
Most of the exits came from holders with BTC younger than one week, indicating capitulation by recent entrants rather than broad selling across seasoned wallets. Loss-taking by addresses that held Bitcoin for more than three months stood at zero during the move.
Meanwhile, open interest dropped by $2.3 billion, the seventh-largest deleveraging event since 2023. This movement suggested the decline was driven mainly by derivatives liquidation rather than spot distribution.
The price bounced before testing the short-term holder cost basis at $97,600 and stayed above the psychological $100,000 price level.
The report highlighted that holding that band keeps cyclical momentum intact because 41% of trading days since the 2022 bottom have experienced deeper pullbacks.
Long-term holders realized $930 million in profit per day at the recent peak, matching the pace recorded during March’s breakout above $100,000 but still well below the $1.64 billion peak seen in early April.
Long-term holders retain supply
Even with higher spending, the cohort’s aggregate balance continued to climb, an uncommon pattern in late-cycle conditions. The report attributed the stickier supply to exchange-traded fund (ETF) custody programs and other institutional channels that remove coins from liquid circulation.
The realized profit-loss ratio for long-term holders reached 9.4, a threshold exceeded on fewer than 16% of trading days since 2011 and typically associated with euphoria. Meanwhile, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows a dense band of coins acquired around $100,000 to $103,000.
Price now sits at the upper edge of that cluster, with relatively light historical volume above it, creating an “air gap” region that may allow rapid moves if demand persists.
Realized Supply Density, which measures the share of supply with a cost basis NEAR the spot price, has increased alongside the recent rally, indicating heightened sensitivity.
Options traders appear unconcerned, as at-the-money implied volatility across both short and long tenors continues to fall, a posture that has preceded volatility spikes in past cycles. The report noted the contrast as a potential setup for larger moves if the price retests the all-time high.
For now, the muted reaction to last week’s decline and the swift recovery above $100,000 leave the uptrend intact and signal that demand absorbed the largest futures-driven shake-out in two months.
