Bitcoin Market Stabilizes as Conditions Align for Potential Recovery: Bitfinex Alpha Report

Bitcoin finds its footing as market indicators signal potential turnaround

Market Stability Returns

After weeks of volatility, Bitcoin's price action shows signs of stabilization. Trading volumes normalize while institutional interest quietly builds in the background—because nothing says 'confidence' like traditional finance cautiously dipping its toes back into crypto waters.

Recovery Signals Emerge

Key technical indicators align with fundamental metrics suggesting the worst may be over. The market's breathing again, with on-chain data painting a brighter picture than the doom-and-gloom headlines would have you believe.

Institutional Positioning

Smart money moves while retail panics—a tale as old as time. Bitfinex analysts spot accumulation patterns that typically precede major moves, though they stop short of guaranteeing this isn't just another false dawn in crypto's rollercoaster narrative.

Bitcoin Conditions Are Aligning

According to Bitfinex, BTC closed the past week at a 4.2% increase, breaking a three-week downtrend. The asset has reclaimed the $112,500 level after defending the lower end of a key support zone near $107,500. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency was worth $115,550, representing a 2.2% increase over the last seven days.

With BTC reclaiming and holding its current levels, they now serve as support for a technical backdrop that could strengthen recovery into the fourth quarter. This dynamic aligns with Bitfinex’s prediction that the market correction is nearing completion in the short term.

It is worth mentioning that bitcoin’s rebound was supported by on-chain buy pressure and a structure that reflected the “buy-the-dip” strategy among investors. This is evident in the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metric, which tracks the concentration of supply across acquisition levels.

How Are BTC Investors Faring?

As bitcoin’s momentum faded after reaching its current all-time high (ATH), the asset fell below the cost basis of recent top buyers and plummeted into the $108,000 – $116,000 air gap. Now that BTC is recovering and supply is redistributing, it has gradually filled the gap. The asset now trades at the upper edge of the range, NEAR $116,000, which remains a resistance level until it is reclaimed.

If BTC makes a sustained MOVE above $116,000, it will likely witness a more meaningful recovery.

While the market awaits the next move, experts have analyzed how different bitcoin investor cohorts behaved during the rebound from $108,000 to $114,000.

Long-term holders remained steady and bought the dip, while short-term holders were the primary source of selling pressure. The three-to six-month cohort locked in roughly $189 million in daily profits on a 14-day moving average basis. This represented about 78% of all short-term holder profits within that time frame.