Fidelity Predicts: 28% of Bitcoin Supply Could Be Locked Up by End of 2025

Bitcoin's circulating supply faces a massive squeeze as institutional adoption accelerates.

The Great Lock-Up

Fidelity's latest analysis reveals nearly a third of all Bitcoin could exit active circulation within months. That's 28% of the total supply—vanishing from trading markets into long-term custody solutions.

Institutional Vaults Swell

Corporate treasuries, ETF vehicles, and sovereign wealth funds are hoarding digital gold faster than miners can produce it. The scarcity mechanics Bitcoin proponents dreamed about are hitting mainstream finance—whether traditional players like it or not.

Supply Shock incoming

Basic economics dictates what happens next: constrained supply meets relentless demand. Price discovery gets violent when assets become this illiquid. Meanwhile, Wall Street still tries to short something with a fixed supply—because old habits die hard.

Get ready for volatility that makes traditional markets look sleepy. The digital gold rush just entered its scarcity phase.

Illiquid Supply Growing

Public companies currently hold more than 830,000 BTC, or 4% of the circulating supply, with 97% concentrated among companies holding more than 1,000 units. That number could be even higher, as BitcoinTreasuries reports that over 1.3 million BTC is held by public and private companies.

When combining the supply of long-term holders with public company holdings, one can see an accelerating trend of holding Bitcoin versus trading or transacting, the researcher noted. He added that the rise in BTC adoption among public company treasuries has driven an uptick in illiquid supply since Q3 2024.

New research piece from analyst Zack Wainwright where he digs deeper on bitcoin’s increasingly illiquid supply.

One interesting aspect is the analysis of what public company accumulation could do to supply in the future.

Check it out here for free: https://t.co/8eFwAYo0Yg

— Chris Kuiper, CFA (@ChrisJKuiper) September 15, 2025

The report predicted that nearly 42% of the current circulating supply, or over 8.3 million BTC, will be considered illiquid by 2032. The researcher concluded that over time, the scarcity of Bitcoin may become the focal point as more entities buy and hold the asset long term.

“If nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment surrounding Bitcoin continues to evolve, the growth of the illiquid supply could be even more dramatic.”

Although the report did not mention it, the same is likely to be happening with Ethereum, as digital asset treasuries have scooped up more than 4% of the entire supply in just a few months. Since Ether ETFs launched last year, they have hoovered up more than 5.5% of the total supply.

BTC Price Outlook

Bitcoin has been in the red over the past day, falling back from a Monday high of $116,700 to just over $115,000 during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session.

The asset has been consolidating for almost a week and remains 7.2% down from its all-time high, so there has yet to be a major correction that was largely expected this month.