Think Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Over? Here’s Why the Peak Isn’t In Yet - 3 Key Signals You’re Missing
Bitcoin's bull run just hit the brakes—but the engine's still roaring.
Institutional adoption hasn't even peaked. BlackRock's spot ETF inflows smashed records last quarter. MicroStrategy keeps stacking sats like there's no tomorrow. And retail? They're still waiting for CNBC to tell them to buy.
Technical indicators scream 'not done.' The 200-week moving average hasn't been tested. Hash rate keeps climbing. And whale wallets? They're accumulating, not dumping.
Macro tides favor digital gold. Inflation won't quit. Central banks keep printing. TradFi yields look pathetic next to Bitcoin's asymmetric upside.
Sure, pullbacks sting. But every 20% dip this cycle got bought faster than a Wall Street banker's apology. This isn't 2017's retail frenzy—it's 2025's institutional infrastructure boom.
The 'peak' narrative? Classic short-sightedness from folks who still think monetary innovation means a new credit card reward program.
No Euphoria, No Top
To start with, pseudonymous crypto analyst Bitblaze said that cycle tops are characterized by unmistakable signals. In 2017 and 2021, for instance, Bitcoin did not just rise in price; it soared amidst massive retail euphoria, institutional mania, overheated on-chain metrics, and peaking global liquidity. None of these conditions is currently present.
On the on-chain side, indicators remain far from the overheated levels historically associated with cycle exhaustion. The Altcoin Season Index is sitting at 65, which shows strength but falling well short of the 90+ readings that have historically preceded market peaks.
Similarly, Bitcoin’s Reserve Risk is hovering at an ultra-low 0.0023, indicating long-term holders remain highly confident in BTC’s value and are not rushing for exits. The MVRV Z-Score, another cycle-critical metric, is at just 2.1 compared to the overheated 7-9 levels at previous tops.
Even the famed Pi Cycle Top Indicator shows no signs of danger as the critical moving averages still appear far apart, while the 12-month RSI remains elevated but nowhere NEAR the 90-100 zones seen in past euphoric climaxes. These on-chain signals are clear – the market may be strong, but it is not overextended.
Liquidity conditions tell a similar story. Global liquidity is still expanding and is projected to peak no earlier than Q1 2026. Previous tops coincided with liquidity rollovers and central banks’ tightening policy, but today the opposite trend is in play, as easing conditions still fuel growth.
Bitcoin and Ethereum’s “liquidity bands” further confirm that the current valuations are fair rather than stretched. With bitcoin yet to trade above its $167K liquidity threshold and ETH still below its $6.1K band, both assets appear to have room for significant appreciation before encountering true cycle resistance.
Meanwhile, US liquidity, which disproportionately influences altcoins, is accelerating with money supply growth at 4.8% year-over-year, which happens to be the fastest pace since mid-2022. Under these conditions, declaring a top seems premature.
Charts Still Point North
Technical analysis also leans bullish. Bitcoin dominance has just lost a three-year uptrend and flashed its first bearish cross since 2021, signaling potential strength in altcoins rather than imminent collapse. ETH/BTC has reclaimed its Gaussian channel for the first time in five years, which means that ethereum is primed for further relative gains.
At the same time, the “Others/ETH” ratio reveals that altcoins are at historically oversold levels, echoing accumulation zones seen in March 2020, November 2022, and April 2025 – all of which foreshadowed explosive rallies. Peaks historically come at moments of euphoria, not despair, and right now, the market sentiment is still cautious at best.
