Bitcoin’s Next Move: Why $111K Support Must Hold Before ATH Retest
Bitcoin bulls, brace yourselves—the road back to all-time highs just got a bumpier. Fresh analysis suggests BTC needs to confirm $111K as sturdy support before even dreaming of reclaiming former glory. Here's the breakdown.
The $111K Litmus Test
Markets aren't sentimental. That flashy ATH tattoo? Worthless until Bitcoin proves it can walk the walk at six figures. Traders are watching for consolidation patterns—anything less could trigger another 'buy the rumor, sell the news' circus.
Meanwhile, institutional whales keep flipping the script—pumping liquidity while retail traders still think 'HODL' is an investment strategy. The irony? This exact dynamic might be what finally builds the foundation for the next leg up.
One thing's certain: in crypto, patience isn't just a virtue—it's the only asset not getting rekt by leverage. As always, the market will move when it damn well pleases.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
After breaking above the previous all-time high at $111K and triggering a notable short squeeze, BTC surged to set a new ATH at $123K, a move underscoring strong market demand and investor confidence.
However, the upward momentum has temporarily paused at this crucial resistance, resulting in a period of sideways consolidation likely driven by increased sell-side pressure.
A corrective pullback toward the significant 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone between $107K and $111K is now anticipated before the next impulsive move. Until then, a period of consolidation appears likely.
The 4-Hour Chart
In the lower timeframe, BTC’s consolidation is more pronounced, reflecting ongoing profit realization. What initially resembled a head and shoulders reversal has evolved into a descending wedge, a typically bullish continuation pattern.
The price continues to trade within this wedge, supported by a key ascending trendline currently positioned around $116K. This trendline has acted as a major support throughout the recent rally.
As long as the price remains confined between the wedge’s boundaries and this trendline, a consolidation range is in play.
A break below the line could trigger a deeper correction toward the $111K support. Conversely, a breakout above the wedge’s upper boundary WOULD signal the continuation of the bullish trend, potentially targeting the $123K ATH and beyond.
On-chain Analysis
By Shayan
On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates a notable increase in Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges, reaching their highest level since June 25th. This sustained inflow reflects ongoing profit-taking and distribution by investors, a dynamic that often signals weakening buy-side pressure and hints at a potential corrective phase.
Historically, rising exchange reserves are associated with local market tops, as more BTC becomes available for potential sale. However, this metric alone should not be seen as a definitive trigger for immediate price drops. Broader market liquidity, sentiment, and demand dynamics remain key.
In essence, while elevated exchange reserves may introduce short-term selling pressure, the broader market structure for BTC remains bullish. Any corrective pullbacks should be viewed within the context of a still-intact longer-term uptrend, unless macroeconomic or technical conditions shift significantly.
