$4B Bitcoin Options Expire Today – Will Crypto Markets Defy Gravity Again?

Crypto traders are strapping in as $4 billion in Bitcoin options face expiration today—will the market roar or retreat?

Market mechanics at play

When this much notional value hits expiry walls, liquidity sharks start circling. Either we see violent gamma squeezes or a textbook 'max pain' scenario where big players manipulate spot prices to minimize payouts. Classic Wall Street tactics—just with more memes and leverage.

Bull case: Rocket fuel

If open interest leans heavily call-heavy (and let's be honest, crypto degens love their leverage), we could see market makers scrambling to hedge. That means buying pressure that sends BTC punching through resistance like a KYC-free exchange during a bull run.

Bear trap potential

Alternatively, whales might engineer a flush below key strikes to pocket premium from OTM puts. Nothing personal—just 'smart money' doing what it does best: separating retail traders from their capital while whispering 'DYOR'.

Either way, grab popcorn. Today's expiry isn't just about $4B changing hands—it's a stress test for whether crypto markets have matured or still trade like a casino with API access.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.94, meaning that there are slightly more calls expiring than put contracts. There is also a max pain point of $107,000, around $9,000 below current spot prices, which is where most losses will be made on contract expiry.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, is highest at $120,000, with almost $2 billion at this strike price. There is also $1.8 billion OI at $115,000 and $1.7 billion OI at $140,000 as bullish speculators load up on contracts.

Options Expiry Alert

Over $4.6B in crypto options expire tomorrow at 08:00 UTC on Deribit.$BTC: $3.99B notional | Put/Call: 0.94 | Max Pain: $107K$ETH: $609M notional | Put/Call: 1.04 | Max Pain: $2,550

Bitcoin hit $112K overnight, but with long gamma at $110K, dealer… pic.twitter.com/ZgZwsgwQRO

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) July 10, 2025

In its weekly update, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live said the group showed “limited market discussion with focus on Trump’s trade deals and Truth Social crypto ETF developments.”

It added that there was “minimal consensus” on market direction, with most activity centered around news events rather than price analysis.

“Option buyers are holding onto positions despite mounting THETA decay—reluctant to exit, yet uneasy to remain,” reported Deribit.

However, these comments were before Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high above $117,000.

In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin options, there are around 238,000 ethereum contracts that are also expiring, with a notional value of $609 million, a max pain point of $2,550, and a put/call ratio of 1.04. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $4.6 billion.

Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets have surged 4% over the past 24 hours to reach $3.7 trillion total capitalization, the highest level since January.

The MOVE has been driven by Bitcoin, which surged to an all-time high of over $117,300 following a 5.5% daily gain during late trading on Thursday. The asset is now trading in new price discovery, having broken out of its two-month sideways channel.

Ethereum has also broken out with a 6.5% daily surge to come just shy of $3,000. The asset was trading at a five-month high of $3,000 at the time of writing during the Friday morning Asian session.

The altcoins were all in the green with larger gains for Dogecoin, Cardano, Sui, and Hedera.