Is Altseason Just a Pipe Dream? This Key Metric Says Yes

Altseason hopes are getting crushed—and the data doesn't lie. While crypto maximalists hype the next big rally, one cold, hard metric suggests the party might not start anytime soon.

No moonboys were harmed in the making of this analysis (but plenty of hopium was incinerated).

Here's the brutal truth: The charts aren't playing along with the Lambo dreams. Trading volumes look anemic, dominance ratios scream 'not yet,' and that 'buy the dip' mantra? More like 'watch it keep dipping.'

Meanwhile, Wall Street's algo-traders are probably sipping martinis while retail bags get heavier. Classic.

Could the tide turn? Always. But until this metric flips, keep those altcoin fantasies in check—and maybe stick to Bitcoin for now.

Will The Altseason Come

According to a report by analyst Burak Kesmeci, altcoins are still behaving as if it were the winter season. Their poor performance has persisted regardless of bitcoin rallies and periodic price spikes. Even when BTC is enjoying a bull run, the bears have been in charge of altcoins.

For this narrative to change, Kesmeci said the 1-Year Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference for Altcoins (excluding ETH) needs to shift to a positive value. The metric flipped positive in December 2024, indicating a local top for altcoins while BTC rallied. However, it has been on a negative trend since then.

Currently, the 1-Year Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference for Altcoins (excluding ETH) stands at -$36 billion. The CryptoQuant analyst stated that the metric heading downhill indicates altcoin investors are missing in action – they are not trading their assets and have refrained from making any significant investments in altcoins.

The metric highlighted by Kesmeci confirms that while BTC consolidates around $104,000, altcoins are still falling short of expectations. Before altcoins can experience a sustained rally, this metric needs to return to the zero range and turn positive. Unless this happens, expecting a full-blown altseason or a fear of missing out (FOMO) among altcoin investors may be just wishful thinking.

Analysts Hold Onto Hope

While the crypto market awaits the rise of the 1-Year Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference for Altcoins metric, experts insist that there is still hope for altcoins.

Some say Ether’s next breakout could trigger an altseason, while others argue that several altseason indicators are aligning. Additionally, some analysts believe that all hope is not yet lost, as BTC still has another leg up (altcoin rallies have corresponded with BTC surges in this cycle).

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju thinks that only a select few will rally if an altseason happens in this cycle. This is because the dynamic of this bull season is different from past cycles.