Hayes’ Million-Dollar Bet: How Capital Controls Could Launch Bitcoin to $1M by 2028
Bitcoin’s next bull run might not come from ETFs or halvings—but from governments shooting themselves in the foot. Arthur Hayes, the ever-provocative ex-BitMEX CEO, predicts capital controls will force the masses into crypto’s arms.
When banks freeze withdrawals and politicians print money like confetti, guess where the smart money goes? Hint: it’s not your 0.01% APY ’high-yield’ savings account.
Hayes’ timeline? Aggressive. His logic? Brutally simple. As fiat systems tighten their grip, Bitcoin becomes the only exit door big enough for institutional capital. The math works if just 5% of global wealth flees to crypto—and let’s face it, after the last bailout cycle, that’s conservative.
One hedge fund manager already calls this ’the most asymmetric bet in finance.’ The real question isn’t if Bitcoin disrupts—it’s whether Wall Street will still pretend to hate it while secretly accumulating.
Bold BTC Bet Amid Global Monetary Shifts
It isn’t the first time Hayes has pinned a million-dollar price tag on BTC. Earlier in the month, he declared the asset WOULD hit seven figures due to a combination of Treasury buybacks, bond market panic, and so-called “monetary detonation” pushing institutions to Bitcoin.
However, the Maelstrom CIO’s new thesis, outlined in his latest Substack essay, introduced a new angle: a radical policy shift that would see the Trump administration switch from tariffs to taxing foreign holdings of stocks, bonds, and real estate to rebalance trade deficits. According to the crypto analyst, the result will be a seismic capital rotation into assets like Bitcoin.
“Foreign capital repatriation and the devaluation of the gargantuan stock of US treasuries will be the two catalysts that will power Bitcoin to $1 million sometime between now and 2028.”
He contends that tariffs, which the U.S. initially tried using to reshore manufacturing, are politically unsustainable. In his opinion, higher consumer prices and supply chain disruptions will likely alienate voters, meaning policymakers must find alternatives.
Hayes argued that capital controls offer a stealthier solution. A hypothetical 2% tax on foreign-owned U.S. assets could generate as much as $600 billion, which, in his estimation, would be enough to eliminate income taxes for the “bottom 90%” of American earners.
Bitcoin as the Ultimate Hedge
The BitMEX founder warned, however, that the MOVE would destabilize the $33 trillion foreign-held U.S. debt and equity market. Reiterating an enduring theme in many of his previous predictions, Hayes stated that as capital flees, the Federal Reserve would be forced to restart quantitative easing (QE) to suppress bond yields and prop up asset prices.
“Foreigners will be permitted to own most U.S. financial assets, but their value will be continuously taxed,” he wrote.”
According to him, this policy could lead to one of three outcomes: foreigners continuing to generate surpluses from selling goods to the United States while facing taxation on their earnings, reducing exports to the country to avoid taxes, or shifting their investments into stateless assets like Gold or Bitcoin.
Hayes pointed out that, unlike gold, which relies on custodial intermediaries, the number one cryptocurrency’s digital bearer asset nature allows frictionless cross-border movement, which could be a critical feature in a world of financial balkanization.
Meanwhile, bitcoin is trading around $102,000 today, having posted a modest 1.4% drop in 24 hours. Still, the current price represents a 3.2% uptick over the past seven days and a nearly 20% surge across the last month.
