Bitcoin’s (BTC) Emotional Comeback: Market Confidence Surges as Fear Index Plummets

Fear's Grip Loosens on Crypto Markets

The digital currency space breathes easier this week as sentiment indicators flip from panic to cautious optimism. Market participants who spent recent weeks watching from the sidelines now dip toes back into turbulent waters.

Data Points Signal Shift

Trading volumes spike across major exchanges while open interest in derivatives markets climbs steadily. The fear and greed index—that emotional barometer of crypto sentiment—jumps multiple points in days. Short positions get squeezed as buyers return with conviction.

Institutional Whispers Grow Louder

Traditional finance players who mocked crypto's volatility now quietly accumulate positions. They can't ignore the network effects—or the profit potential. Funny how seven-figure gains change perspectives on 'tulip mania.'

The pendulum always swings back. Greed prepares to take the baton from fear—because in crypto, the only constant is exaggeration in both directions.

BTC Emotional Strength Hits Positive Territory

Investor sentiment toward BTC is showing a decisive turnaround, according to fresh data from Binance, the world’s largest and most liquid cryptocurrency exchange. Since the start of October, Binance’s composite psychological indicator, which tracks the relationship between market behavior, investor emotions, and confidence levels during sharp price movements, has recorded a steady rise.

CryptoQuant revealed that the current reading of 1.47 is a meaningful recovery from the negative territory seen in mid-September, which points to Optimism and buying interest as BTC’s price moves firmly above its monthly moving averages.

Short-term momentum is particularly significant since the 7-day moving average of the indicator stands at 3.7. However, the 14-day (-3.91) and 30-day (-5.02) averages continue to reflect lingering caution as the broader market is still transitioning from fear to confidence. This divergence has been interpreted as an early-stage shift rather than a euphoric phase, which could imply that investor sentiment is strengthening but not yet overheated.

In terms of market behavior, such rebounds in “emotional strength” often align with the beginning of medium-term uptrends, especially when Bitcoin maintains key technical levels. The $120,000 mark has emerged as a critical support zone, where a reduction in volatility around the indicator’s moving averages could support market stability. Binance data also points to a gradual re-entry of institutional players, who appear to be capitalizing on low selling liquidity across exchanges.

Bitcoin could retest the $125,000-$130,000 range if the indicator maintains its current positive levels through mid-October. Such stable market conditions could potentially set the stage for the next leg of the ongoing bullish cycle without triggering excessive speculative fervor.

No Blow-Off Top, No Cycle End?

Adding to this perspective, crypto analyst Ted Pillows said that Bitcoin’s market behavior may be undergoing a deeper structural change. According to him, the traditional four-year cycle, which was long considered a defining feature of BTC’s price history, might now be over. He points out the lack of euphoric, blow-off top price action that typically concludes each cycle, and argues that this absence reflects a more mature, liquidity-driven market.

Pillows expects global liquidity to increase substantially in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, which could inject new capital into digital assets and extend the asset’s rally beyond its usual cyclical timeline.