Oil Traders Bet Big: OPEC+ to Hold Production Levels Unchanged in Weekend Meeting

Market insiders place their chips—OPEC+ looks set to maintain current output as the cartel gathers this weekend. No cuts, no hikes—just steady hands on the pump.

Behind the Scenes: Why Status Quo Reigns

Geopolitical tensions and fragile demand forecasts keep the group cautious. They’re playing the long game—even if traders crave drama.

Market Impact: Stability Over Surprise

Oil prices hold steady as speculation cools. Another meeting, another non-event—because why rock the boat when complacency pays better than action?

OPEC+ remains the master of doing just enough to keep everyone guessing—and just little enough to actually change anything. After all, in the world of commodities, sometimes the most profitable move is no move at all. Classic fossil fuel theater.

Next OPEC+ move could be a cut or further hike

At last month’s meeting, eight key members approved a September rise of 547,000 barrels a day, completing the return of 2.2 million barrels a day shut in during 2023. Officials also signaled the next MOVE could be a cut or another increase.

“The phase-out of the additional voluntary production adjustments may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions,” the producers said on OPEC’s website.

Some analysts, including Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley, say OPEC+ may need to cut output next year to avoid a glut.

Prices ROSE more than 1% on Monday on worries over Russia-Ukraine airstrikes and a weaker dollar. At 1335 GMT, Brent traded at $68.28 per barrel, up $0.80 (1.2%). In the U.S., West Texas Intermediate rose by $0.80 (1.3%) to $64.81. Trading was muted by a U.S. public holiday.

Brent and WTI posted their first monthly declines in four months in August, losing 6% or more on extra OPEC+ supply.

“Crude fell in August and has started September with no clear direction within established ranges as fears of a fourth-quarter supply glut are offset by geopolitical tensions,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

He said attention had shifted to Beijing, where China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and India’s Narendra Modi are attending a regional summit. He added that the OPEC+ meeting on September 7 was also in focus.

Markets remain wary of Russian flows

Weekly shipments from its ports fell to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day, ANZ said, citing tanker-tracker data.

On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed to answer with more strikes DEEP inside Russia after Russian drones hit power facilities in northern and southern Ukraine. Both sides have intensified airstrikes, hitting energy sites and disrupting Russian exports.

HSBC analysts said oil inventories should rise in the last quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, with a surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The U.S. labor-market report this week will show the economy’s health and test investor confidence that interest-rate cuts are coming soon. Before the data, the dollar was near a five-week low on Monday, making oil cheaper for other buyers.

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