Fed Holds Firm: Interest Rates Frozen at 4.25%-4.5% as Markets Hold Their Breath

The Federal Reserve just hit pause—again. No cuts, no hikes, just the same old 4.25% to 4.5% range that's been squeezing wallets since 2023. Here's why Wall Street's 'soft landing' fantasy is starting to look like a bad rerun.

The Waiting Game

Jerome Powell & Co. left rates untouched for the ninth straight meeting, betting inflation will magically surrender without crushing the economy. Spoiler: It hasn't worked yet.

Crypto's Silver Lining

While TradFi groans under rate paralysis, Bitcoin's up 12% this month—because nothing screams 'hedge' like an asset that laughs at central bank balance sheets.

The Punchline

Fed officials still swear they'll cut rates 'soon.' Meanwhile, your savings account yields less than a vending machine's coin return. Stay classy, monetary policy.

Powell holds back on rate cuts as tariff impact looms

Jerome Powell pointed directly at the risk from Trump’s tariffs as a key reason the Fed is staying cautious. Inflation’s still sticky. And economists say the worst of the pricing pressure from those tariffs hasn’t even hit yet. That means inflation could spike again before the end of the year.

“The uncertainty and inflation risks are still too high,” Powell told reporters, basically saying the Fed isn’t taking chances. Some economists agree. They think inflation could pick up in the second half of 2025 once the full cost of tariffs starts showing up across supply chains.

The federal funds rate, for anyone keeping score, is the overnight rate banks charge each other to borrow. It sounds boring, but it matters. That rate spills over into credit cards, loans, mortgages, and even your savings account. So when the Federal Reserve does nothing, millions of people feel it.

Credit cards are the first place it stings. Since most cards have variable rates, they MOVE with the Fed’s actions, or in this case, inaction. Right now, the average credit card APR is sitting just above 20%, according to Bankrate. That’s not far from last year’s peak.

Mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the Federal Reserve, but they’re not ignoring it either. They follow Treasury yields and broader market vibes. With all the noise about tariffs and economic uncertainty, mortgage rates haven’t budged much.

As of July 28, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage sat at 6.81%, and the 15-year fixed hit 6.06%, based on data from Mortgage News Daily. If you’re looking at an ARM or a HELOC, those follow the prime rate, and they’re staying high too.

Buyers aren’t catching a break. “Until mortgage interest rates begin to decline meaningfully, growth in the mortgage market is expected to remain modest,” said Michele Raneri, VP at TransUnion. Prices are high, rates are high, and that combo is freezing a lot of people out of the housing market.

Auto loans? Same story. The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now 7.3%, and it jumps to 10.9% for used cars, according to Edmunds. And if you’re wondering why cars are so damn expensive, the tariffs on vehicle imports and parts are part of it.

Even if the Federal Reserve slashed rates tomorrow, those DEEP affordability problems wouldn’t vanish. “It won’t immediately change the deeply entrenched affordability challenges in the market,” Yoon added.

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