Bitcoin Stalls at $118K: Bull Market Pause or 2025 Mega-Rally Prep?

Bitcoin's price action flatlines at $118K—traders split between 'correction' and 'coiling spring.'

The $118K Standoff

No volatility, no volume, just the market holding its breath. Institutional whales aren't selling, but retail FOMO hasn't kicked in either. Classic pre-breakout limbo—or the calm before a 20% haircut.

Halving Hangover or Hidden Fuel?

Four months post-halving, the usual fireworks are MIA. Miner capitulation? Maybe. Or maybe the big players are quietly accumulating while CNBC debates 'crypto winter.'

Tether Prints, ETFs Bleed

Stablecoin issuance spikes as spot BTC ETFs see outflows—because nothing screams 'healthy market' like leverage stacking while dumb money exits. The 2025 rally either dies here or rockets past $150K on pure institutional desperation.

Wake us up when the Fed hints at rate cuts or Elon tweets a Bitcoin emoji. Until then, enjoy the sideways purgatory.

Ethereum’s 50% Surge in July (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Institutional Fuel Keeps Summer Bull Market Hot

The Altcoin Season Index—often viewed as the market’sgauge—has dipped to about 36. That level suggests bitcoin is still outperforming most altcoins, limiting the breadth of the rally. Historically, broader gains across mid‑cap tokens have been a key sign of a full bull market, and the current reading suggests traders remain selective.

Institutional participation continues to provide support. A March 2025 executive order established a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, reinforcing the asset’s role in national holdings.

In parallel, corporate treasuries have allocated more than $86 billion to crypto this year. These moves mean that institutional exposure is deeper than in prior cycles.

JPMorgan estimates that more than $60 billion in new capital has entered crypto markets so far in 2025, demonstrating the strength of the bull market. Analysts attribute the inflows to ETF adoption, venture capital funding, and renewed confidence after regulatory clarity in several jurisdictions. The institutional presence has helped sustain prices, even as speculative trading cools.

Crypto inflows hit $60 billion in 12 months. JPMorgan's analysis revealed this amount surpasses investments made into private equity during the same timeframe. What does this shift mean for traditional finance?

Source: CoinDesk, July 2025 pic.twitter.com/9bshCvaGFR

Ethereum has been a major beneficiary of this trend. With ETF inflows driving demand, ETH ROSE sharply in July. Business Insider noted that institutional investors were among the largest contributors to its rally, which saw prices climb above $3,800. Daily volumes continue to exceed $15 billion, indicating strong liquidity.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has weakened. An analysis placed the BTC‑S&P 500 correlation NEAR 0.2, suggesting the asset is moving more independently of traditional risk markets. That separation could make Bitcoin more attractive if equity markets remain volatile.

Crypto Bull Market Shows Signs of Strain

Not all indicators are bullish. Rising Bitcoin dominance—still above 60%, according to TradingView’s BTC.D chart—shows capital has not yet rotated broadly into altcoins, delaying the start of a true.

This dynamic limits the depth of the rally and raises questions about whether the market has entered the kind of expansionary phase typical of past bull runs.

Analysts remain divided. Reports from different organizations project Bitcoin could rise to between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing liquidity cycles and ETF inflows.

Others point to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming September meeting as a possible brake on momentum if interest rate cuts do not materialize.

Volatility remains a defining feature. Daily swings of 3% to 5% are common, and traders are balancing long‑term Optimism with near‑term caution. Ethereum’s outperformance and steady inflows contrast with Bitcoin’s slower pace, while most altcoins remain muted.

Historically, August has been one of the best months for $ETH during bull markets. pic.twitter.com/9Xaj6De7Zd

For now, theis not over, but it is showing signs of strain. Prices remain high, institutional backing is strong, and adoption continues to grow. Yet the lack of a broad altcoin rally and uncertainty around monetary policy keep the market in a holding pattern.

The next few months will be key in determining whether this cycle resumes its upward push or settles into consolidation.