Trump’s Fed Visit Sparks Speculation: Is Powell’s Chair Shaking?

Rare presidential appearances at the Federal Reserve don't happen by accident—especially when rates are still frozen at historic lows while inflation gnaws at Main Street. Here's why Wall Street's suddenly placing bets on Powell's future.

The power play behind closed doors

When a sitting president walks into the Eccles Building unannounced, every trading desk from New York to Hong Kong reaches for the antacids. Trump's surprise visit—his first since appointing Powell in 2017—comes as the Fed faces mounting pressure to cut rates despite sticky core CPI numbers.

Powell's tightrope act

The Fed chair's balancing act grows more precarious by the month. Keep rates high to fight inflation? Trigger recession fears. Cut too soon? Risk unleashing another speculative asset bubble (because clearly we didn't learn enough from 2021).

Wall Street's cynical take: This isn't about monetary policy—it's about November's election. With Trump trailing in key battleground states, some whisper the visit signals an incoming demand for pre-election stimulus. Because nothing says 'healthy economy' like political pressure on central bankers.

Trump eyes Fed control?

The Fed has defended its position by arguing that it is waiting to assess the full impact of Trump’s tariffs before making any further moves. Meanwhile, Trump isn’t buying it and suggests Powell could be fired. He argues that Powell should be lowering rates further to stimulate the economy amid rising trade frictions.

In a sign of internal division, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to cool off the emerging concerns on Wednesday. He reportedly said that there’s “nothing that tells me that [Powell] should step down right now.” This offered markets a brief dose of reassurance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are already hitting record highs amid the stress.

The president is scheduled to visit the Federal Reserve. Source: Jesse Cohen’s X

The WHITE House confirmed the visit in a late-night schedule release but did not say whether Trump would meet Powell face-to-face. White House deputy chief of staff James Blair had earlier said that administration officials would attend the Fed visit, but stopped short of confirming the president’s participation. However, it’s clear now.

Polymarket bets on Powell’s fate

Markets are watching closely. Traders on Polymarket are choosing their sides on the matter. As of now, only 1% see that Jerome Powell will be out as Fed Chair by July 31, while 14% bet that Trump will try to fire Powell by August 31. 19% think Jerome Powell will be out as Fed Chair in 2025. 

Betting odds on Jerome Powell staying in his role. Source: Polymarket

On the other side, Treasury yields inched higher on Thursday morning. The 10-year yield is touching 4.4%, as investors brace for what could be a politically charged showdown. Tensions over central bank independence, interest rate policy, and even building renovations have now collided in what could be a defining moment for Fed–White House relations.

Trump picked Powell during his first term. Biden re-nominated him. Now, Trump’s return to Washington and to the Fed signals that he wants control of the narrative again.

Amid this, the US and EU may be closing in on a new trade pact. European officials say the agreement WOULD likely impose a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US.

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