Russia’s $1B Metals Surge to China in 2025 – A Trade Power Play Unfolds
Russia just crossed the billion-dollar mark in metals exports to China—and the timing couldn’t be more strategic.
Why this matters: While traditional markets wobble, raw materials keep the lights on. No sanctions, no problem—just cold, hard commodity cash.
The cynical take: Another win for ‘real economy’ assets while crypto maximalists seethe. Guess physical bullion still beats digital gold for now.
Russia leans on China after being locked out of Western gold trade
Ever since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s been cut out of the world’s top trading venues like London and New York. That shut the door on Western demand, but China’s stayed open.
With the Bank of Russia, once the biggest central bank buyer of gold, not returning to the market in any major way, Russian miners are now banking hard on Asian demand.
Russia still pumps out over 300 tons of gold annually, making it the second-largest gold producer in the world. That supply needs a home. For now, it’s getting one in China. And not just gold, Russia’s also moving more palladium and platinum, thanks to demand coming out of China’s manufacturing sectors.
MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, the country’s major producer of both metals, has turned its focus entirely eastward. That play seems to be working. Prices for palladium are up 38%, and platinum has jumped 59% so far this year. China’s taking that in stride, expanding imports as the West keeps its sanctions tight.
Inside Russia, miners are getting an extra push from locals. As trust in the ruble drops, Russian retail demand for gold has hit record highs in 2024, with people buying coins, bars, and any physical metal they can stash. Precious metals have basically become the savings account for Russian households trying to survive inflation and a volatile currency.
Global drama and weak dollar push gold to new highs
Gold prices didn’t just spike because of mining. They’re also reacting to global politics. On Monday morning, spot gold ROSE to $3,369.02 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures hit $3,376.40. The jump was helped by a weakening U.S. dollar, which slipped 0.2% against other major currencies. That drop made it easier for non-dollar holders to jump in and buy gold.
Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, explained the rally clearly: “Dollar has made a subdued start to the week, which has left the door open for gold to post gains early doors with tariff deadlines looming large.” He added:
“The closer we MOVE towards the key August 1 deadline without any new trade deals emerging, the more likely gold is to start fancying another run towards the $3,400 level and perhaps beyond.”
Tensions are running high with U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline just days away. His Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, is still hopeful about locking in a deal with the European Union, but so far, no handshake.
Trump is also rumored to be considering a visit to China ahead of the APEC summit, which takes place from October 30 to November 1. Another option WOULD be to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC gathering in South Korea.
Over in Europe, the European Central Bank is expected to hold its interest rate steady at 2.0% after a series of recent cuts. In the U.S., Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said last week that the Fed should move ahead with a rate cut at its next meeting. Both of those moves make gold more attractive, especially with traditional yields falling and uncertainty mounting.
In Japan, the ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house during Sunday’s vote, dealing another political shock just as global trade talks stall out. That instability only adds more fuel to the metals market.
And it’s not just gold on fire. Other metals are following suit. Spot silver gained 0.4% to hit $38.33 per ounce, platinum added 1.1% to reach $1,437.53, and palladium climbed 1.3% to $1,256.98.
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