China Holds Firm: Key Lending Rates Unchanged at 3.0% (1-Year) and 3.5% (5-Year) Amid Economic Crosswinds
Beijing plays it safe—rates frozen like a DeFi project in a bear market.
No surprises from the PBoC: China's central bank leaves benchmark lending rates untouched, signaling cautious optimism (or just bureaucratic inertia). One-year loans stay at 3.0%, while five-year debt gets priced at 3.5%—same as your grandma's CD, but with more geopolitical risk.
Liquidity limbo: While crypto markets pivot hourly, traditional finance moves at the speed of a mining rig on dial-up. These rates haven't budged since... well, let's just say NFT collectors still cared about Bored Apes last time they changed.
Bullish or stagnant? Traders split on whether this is stability or stagnation—much like debating if 'Web3' is a revolution or a rebranded Excel spreadsheet. One thing's clear: when your monetary policy feels predictable, it's either masterful control or creative accounting.
*Cynical finance jab*: At least these rates are more real than the 'guaranteed returns' from your local crypto influencer.
Demand might weaken in the 2nd half of 2025
In a note dated July 9, analysts at Nomura warned that while current indicators seem stable, fundamentals could weaken noticeably in the 2nd part of the year. They pointed to signs that demand might soften across several areas, asset prices may face renewed strain, and some ease might be observed in the market interest rates.
Given these risks, Nomura’s team said Beijing WOULD “very likely rush to roll out a new round of supportive measures” before year‑end. They described a looming “demand cliff” driven by a slowdown in exports due to sales and US tariffs shortfalls.
Under these pressures, the analysts expect fiscal health in many cities to worsen and forecast that GDP growth will slow to about 4.0 percent year‑on‑year in the second half, down from roughly 5.1 percent in the first half.
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