OPEC’s Bold 2050 Vision: Oil Demand to Skyrocket 19% Despite Green Push

OPEC just dropped a bombshell forecast—and it's dripping with black gold optimism.

Fossil Fuels Fight Back

The cartel predicts a staggering 19% surge in oil demand by 2050, betting against the death-of-oil narrative. Apparently, the energy transition won't be happening in OPEC Standard Time.

Peak Oil? More Like Peak Denial

While Wall Street hedge funds short oil futures to virtue-signal their ESG commitments, OPEC's playing 4D chess with reality. The numbers suggest someone's going to be left holding either worthless carbon credits or very valuable oil derricks.

One thing's clear: the energy wars just got hotter—and not from solar radiation.

OPEC fights the tide while forecasts tighten

This view from OPEC puts it at odds with nearly every major energy forecaster. BP, Bank of America, the International Energy Agency, and Wood Mackenzie all say oil demand will peak in the next ten years.

That’s mostly because China, which has been the world’s largest oil importer, is already cooling off. These forecasters believe slowing economic growth, improved fuel efficiency, and the global shift to renewables will cap demand.

But OPEC’s not buying it. Despite being isolated in its position, it recently started boosting crude supply again. On July 5, the group announced it would return 548,000 barrels a day of idled supply in August.

That’s four times what it originally planned. The markets didn’t panic. Brent crude stayed NEAR $70 per barrel in London this week, giving the cartel some fuel for its bullish call.

Still, this wouldn’t be the first time it has missed. Its Vienna-based secretariat had predicted much higher oil demand in 2024, only to cut forecasts by 32% over six straight months. In 2023, it imposed deeper output cuts, insisting inventories were tight, but the squeeze never happened.

Now, it is projecting oil consumption to rise 9% between 2024 and 2030. That’s the same estimate as last year. But this time, it is backing it with more long-term figures. The report says the growth will come mostly from road transport, petrochemicals, and aviation. And India is expected to take the lead, adding 8.2 million barrels a day by 2050.

India and OPEC+ expected to dominate the growth

While demand is expected to rise, OPEC says its influence will too. The OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia, Kazakhstan, and other partners, will go from controlling 48% of the global oil market today to 52% by 2050. The shift is expected as production growth from other countries slows down.

Meanwhile, outside OPEC’s report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. crude stocks ROSE last week, but gasoline and distillate inventories dropped. Gasoline demand shot up 6%, reaching 9.2 million barrels a day, a sign that American drivers aren’t going electric just yet.

There’s more: oil prices slipped Thursday after President TRUMP announced new tariffs. Traders are worried this could slow the global economy and drag down demand. By 0052 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 22 cents to $69.97 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost 27 cents, landing at $68.11 a barrel.

But one area where demand isn’t slowing is the sky. J.P. Morgan, in a client note, said that global flight activity hit an all-time high during the first eight days of July, with 107,600 flights per day. Flights in China are back to levels not seen in five months. And freight traffic? Still growing, with ports and cargo hubs showing what J.P. Morgan called “sustained expansion” over last year’s numbers.

OPEC is pushing against a wall of doubt, but it’s not blinking. It believes oil isn’t going anywhere, and the bloc is planning for a future where it’s needed even more than today. The rest of the world might call it denial. OPEC calls it a strategy.

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